• The 2025 holiday shopping season is forecast to hit a record $253.4 billion in online spending, a 5.3% year-over-year increase and the first quarter-trillion-dollar season in U.S. history.
  • Mobile commerce is set to dominate, driving 56.1% of all online spending, while AI-powered traffic to retail sites is accelerating at a staggering 515-520% year-over-year rate.
  • 'Buy now, pay later' (BNPL) services are fueling $20.2 billion in spending, reflecting consumer demand for flexibility, with social commerce revenue also seeing explosive growth.

The 2025 holiday shopping season is on track to be the most digitally driven and financially significant on record, according to the latest data from Adobe Analytics. The firm, which tracks direct transactions across over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, projects online spending from November 1 to December 31 will reach $253.4 billion, marking the first time the season has crossed the quarter-trillion-dollar threshold.

A significant shift is underway in the traditional holiday calendar. While Cyber Monday is still expected to be the single largest day at $14.2 billion, Black Friday is showing stronger growth momentum, projected at $11.7 billion with an 8.3% year-over-year increase. In total, a record 10 individual days are forecast to surpass $5 billion in consumer spending, up from just 7 days in 2024.

Perhaps the most telling trend is the complete dominance of mobile commerce. Shoppers are expected to spend $142.7 billion via smartphones and tablets this season, accounting for a record 56.1% of all online spending. This represents a dramatic acceleration from just five years ago, when mobile accounted for only 40% of holiday spend. The shift is particularly pronounced in the BNPL sector, where 79% of transactions are now completed on mobile devices.

"The data shows a consumer who is highly strategic, using every tool available to maximize value and convenience," said an analyst familiar with Adobe's findings. "Mobile isn't just an alternative; it's the primary shopping platform for the majority of consumers now."

Generative AI is emerging as a powerful new force in the retail landscape. Traffic to retail sites driven by AI-powered services is projected to surge between 515% and 520% compared to last year. Over a third of U.S. consumers report using AI for shopping tasks, with product research (53%), personalized recommendations (40%), and deal-finding (36%) as the top use cases. This AI-driven traffic is not just browsing; early data from October indicated it converts to sales at a higher rate than non-AI traffic sources.

Financing flexibility remains a key theme. BNPL services are expected to drive $20.2 billion in spending, an 11% increase over 2024. This growth underscores ongoing consumer sensitivity to budget management, even amid robust overall spending. Meanwhile, social media's role in commerce is accelerating dramatically. Revenue attributed to social channels is projected to grow 51% year-over-year, a stark acceleration from the modest 5% growth seen in 2024.

Category performance reveals a focus on home, health, and entertainment. Compared to average spending levels earlier in the year, power tools are expected to surge 1,060%, home security products 1,050%, and TVs 915%. In wellness, activity trackers are projected to rise 1,055% and smartwatches 950%. Gaming consoles are also seeing massive demand, with an anticipated 1,040% jump.

Efforts to reach Adobe for additional comment on the mid-season forecast were not immediately returned. The final weeks of December will determine if the season meets its historic projection, but current momentum suggests retailers are navigating a new landscape defined by AI, mobile-first strategies, and flexible payment options that are reshaping how consumers spend.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year-over-year growth rate for social commerce revenue. It is projected to grow 51% in 2025, not 5%.