Key Takeaways

  • Amundi Investment Institute forecasts China's GDP growth to slow to 4.1% in 2025, contrary to claims of an upward revision
  • Structural challenges and US trade tensions continue to weigh on economic prospects
  • Chinese policymakers are responding with monetary easing and fiscal stimulus measures

Revised Growth Projections

Contrary to some market speculation, Amundi Investment Institute has not upgraded its 2025 GDP forecast for China. The firm's latest projections, updated in January 2025, anticipate a deceleration from 5.0% growth in 2024 to 4.1% in 2025, with a further decline to 3.6% expected in 2026. These figures reflect persistent structural headwinds that even expansionary policies may struggle to overcome.

Policy Responses and Economic Headwinds

Chinese authorities are preparing a package of stimulus measures to counter these trends, according to sources familiar with government planning. The initiatives include an extension of the consumer goods trade-in program and new birth subsidies worth 500-800 RMB for families with multiple children, expected to be formally announced at the upcoming National People's Congress.

"The policy response reflects growing concerns about both short-term cyclical pressures and longer-term demographic challenges," noted one Beijing-based economist who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions. Attempts to reach Amundi analysts for additional comment were unsuccessful.

Global Context and Investment Implications

Amundi's global outlook suggests Asia will remain a key growth driver despite China's slowdown, with emerging markets overall expected to outpace developed economies. The firm maintains a neutral stance on Chinese equities but shows preference for domestic stocks that may benefit from government support measures.

Market participants are closely watching how incoming US trade policies might further impact China's economic trajectory. While some analysts had speculated that trade negotiations might lead to forecast upgrades, Amundi's current assessment suggests persistent caution about China's medium-term prospects.

Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated Amundi's 2026 growth projection as 3.5%. The correct figure is 3.6%.