• Anthropic’s chances of going public in 2026 have fallen below 60% on Kalshi, down from nearly 90% before the midterms.
  • Investors are reportedly targeting a $1.5T–$1.6T valuation for the Claude developer, down from earlier estimates near $2T.
  • Despite the tech selloff, prediction-market traders still expect an IPO within months.

Valuation Reset

Anthropic’s IPO prospects are facing a sharp reality check as a deepening tech selloff forces investors to reconsider the company’s sky-high valuation. According to people familiar with the matter, institutional buyers are now pushing for a valuation in the $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion range, down from earlier discussions near $2 trillion. The reset comes as the broader technology sector wobbles, with investors growing increasingly skeptical of the massive capital expenditures required to sustain AI infrastructure buildouts.

Prediction markets have taken notice. On Kalshi, the implied probability of an Anthropic IPO in 2026 has tumbled below 60%, a steep drop from nearly 90% before the midterm elections. The shift reflects mounting concerns over both pricing pressure and political uncertainty, though traders still assign a better-than-even chance that the Claude developer will list within months. The offering size, final price and valuation have not been announced.

Filing and Timeline

Anthropic publicly filed on October 26 and updated its disclosures on November 2, keeping the listing process on track. Formal marketing is reportedly expected next week, with a potential debut before Thanksgiving, according to anonymous sources. The company, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI employees, has seen explosive revenue growth — first-half 2026 revenue reached approximately $16.3 billion, up from roughly $1.2 billion a year earlier, while third-quarter revenue climbed 47% sequentially to $16.96 billion. Trailing twelve-month revenue stands at about $35.3 billion.

Yet the cost of fueling that growth is mounting. Third-quarter computing costs reportedly rose 77%, faster than revenue, and adjusted operating margin slipped to 15% from 19%. The company has committed roughly $895 billion to future spending, including about $448 billion expected through the end of 2030 — multiyear obligations that dwarf current quarterly expenses.

Governance and Risk

The IPO also tests a governance structure that could give some investors pause. Anthropic remains a public benefit corporation with founder super-voting shares and an independent Long-Term Benefit Trust designed to protect its mission. While that framework may preserve safety priorities, it limits ordinary shareholders’ influence and could justify a valuation discount.

The broader political climate adds another layer of uncertainty. Opposition to data-center expansion helped Democratic candidates in the midterms, particularly in state-level races, raising the possibility of tighter permitting, reduced tax incentives or construction moratoria. Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) estimated that outcomes in Texas, Michigan and Georgia could expose roughly 45% of planned U.S. data-center capacity to such policy risks — a risk estimate, not a forecast of cancellations.

At the current proposed valuation range, investors would pay approximately 43 to 57 times trailing annual revenue — a multiple that, according to University of Florida IPO researcher Jay Ritter, only 14 of 4,110 IPOs from 1980 through 2024 have exceeded. NYU valuation professor Aswath Damodaran estimates equity value around $1.45 trillion, based on an ambitious assumption that annual revenue reaches roughly $1 trillion in a decade.

The coming weeks will be decisive. A lower valuation could help the deal clear by attracting buyers, while persistent tech-market weakness or infrastructure-policy uncertainty could force further repricing or a delay. For now, the evidence points to a tougher negotiation — not an abandoned offering.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the Kalshi contract deadline. The 60% figure refers to the probability of an official IPO announcement in 2026, not specifically a year-end listing.