• ASML shares fell 4.6%, extending recent losses amid fresh concerns over export controls and semiconductor demand.
  • The decline follows reports that the Dutch government may tighten restrictions on chipmaking equipment exports to China.
  • Analysts warn that ASML's order backlog and 2025 guidance could face pressure if policy uncertainty persists.

Export Control Jitters

ASML Holding NV shares slid 4.6% in Amsterdam trading on Thursday, adding to a string of losses as investors fret over potential new export restrictions on its advanced lithography systems. The drop came after reports that the Dutch government, under pressure from the United States, is considering further limits on sales to China of ASML's older deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography tools. Sources familiar with the matter said the discussions are at an early stage but could lead to expanded licensing requirements.

ASML, which dominates the market for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems used to make cutting-edge chips, has already been barred from selling its most advanced machines to Chinese customers. Any extension to DUV tools would hit a key revenue stream, as China accounted for roughly 20% of ASML's sales in the first half of 2024.

Earnings and Guidance in Focus

The selloff comes just weeks after the company reported better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, but offered cautious guidance for the fourth quarter. CEO Christophe Fouquet said on the earnings call that while demand for EUV systems remains strong, "the macroeconomic environment and geopolitical uncertainties continue to create volatility." Bookings of €5.6 billion fell short of some analysts' expectations, flagging a potential slowdown in orders from memory chipmakers.

"The market is now pricing in a scenario where export restrictions not only limit near-term sales but also cast doubt on ASML's long-term growth trajectory in China," said an analyst at a Dutch investment bank, who asked not to be named. The firm has not responded to requests for additional comment.

Broader Sector Impact

ASML's decline weighed on other European semiconductor stocks. Rival lithography tool makers like Nikon Corp. also slipped, while chipmakers such as Infineon Technologies AG saw marginal losses. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.2% in afternoon trading.

This article was updated to include market data as of 15:30 CET.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of ASML's earnings report; it was Oct. 16, not Oct. 17.