• Barclays estimates rising U.S. gas prices will cost retailer customers an average of $942 annually, or about 1% of pre-tax income.
  • Rural-focused retailers like Tractor Supply (TSCO) face the highest per-customer impact ($1,018), while high-income, urban-oriented stores like Williams-Sonoma and Sprouts are least exposed.
  • Dollar stores and auto parts retailers also face meaningful pressure, with exposure varying by income, geography, and vehicle use.

Barclays has quantified how surging U.S. gas prices ripple through the retail sector, modeling an average annual fuel cost increase of $942 per customer—roughly 1% of pre-tax income. The analysis, based on a proprietary gas-price exposure model, highlights stark disparities across retailer categories, with rural and vehicle-dependent customers bearing the brunt.

“The impact is highly uneven,” a Barclays analyst said. “Retailers serving lower-income, rural, or travel-heavy customers are more vulnerable to wallet-share shifts.” The firm’s report, shared with clients this week, estimates that Tractor Supply, whose typical customer drives significant distances, faces the highest hit at $1,018 per customer annually. Dollar General (DG) and AutoZone (AZO) also rank high, while Williams-Sonoma and Sprouts Farmers Market, with their higher-income, urban clientele, see minimal exposure.

The findings come as U.S. gas prices hover near $3.80 per gallon, about 10% higher year-over-year in some regions, squeezing discretionary spending. “Higher fuel costs can dampen trips and tilt spending toward essentials,” noted an industry observer. “Rural retailers, already facing thinner margins, could see pressure on traffic and basket size.”

Barclays’ model incorporates regional gas-price variations, household income, and vehicle usage patterns, showing a 1–2 percentage-point swing in disposable income devoted to fuel across different consumer segments. “This isn’t a uniform shock,” the analyst added. “It’s a localized phenomenon that could accelerate shifts toward local shopping and alter category mix.”

The report did not adjust for potential compensatory factors like wage growth or credit access. “Without a deal—meaning stable or falling prices—consumers in exposed segments may be forced to reallocate spending,” the analyst cautioned.

Reached for comment, Tractor Supply declined to discuss the analysis but noted its focus on value and service. Barclays declined to comment beyond the report.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the average annual cost increase; it is $942, not $950.