- Market commentator Bessent signals expectations for robust June payrolls.
- A strong jobs report could reshape rate-cut bets and rally equities.
- Wage growth and labor force participation remain key to Fed's next move.
June Jobs Data on Deck
Scott Bessent, a prominent macro investor, said he wouldn't be surprised if the June employment report shows "very strong" job gains, hinting that the labor market remains hotter than many anticipate. Speaking ahead of the official release, Bessent added he hasn't seen the actual figures, but his comments set the stage for a potential upside surprise.
The prediction comes as markets are split on whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September. A robust payroll number could push Fed officials to hold steady, while a miss might revive bets on an early cut.
Market Implications
If June adds 250,000 jobs or more—exceeding consensus estimates around 200,000—it would reinforce the narrative of a resilient economy. The Dow futures edged higher on the remark, and Treasury yields ticked up. “A strong number would push back on recession fears,” said one trader who declined to be named. “But the Fed will need to see wage data too.”
Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% year-over-year in May. Bessent's bullish view suggests that acceleration could persist, keeping pressure on the Fed.
Context on Labor Market Resilience
The U.S. has added an average of 248,000 jobs per month over the past year, defying earlier predictions of a slowdown. However, revisions have softened some months. For June, economists point to low layoffs and steady hiring in services. Bessent’s confidence echoes a growing belief that the economy is not cooling as fast as hoped.
What to Watch
All eyes will be on the Bureau of Labor Statistics release Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET. A reading above 250,000 would confirm Bessent's view; anything below 180,000 could spark a rethink. Either way, the report is likely to move markets.
Correction: An earlier version of this article misspelled Bessent's name. It has been fixed.