• Bilal Erdogan, President Erdogan's son, has emerged as the AKP's preferred candidate to succeed his father despite holding no formal political office and polling at just 14.2% among party supporters in December 2025.
  • The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lacks a formal succession mechanism as Erdogan's constitutional term expires in 2028, with party officials privately acknowledging there is "no Plan B" after more than two decades of one-man leadership.
  • An informal contest is underway among four primary contenders: Bilal Erdogan, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan (polling at 33.4%), former interior minister Süleyman Soylu (32.5%), and Erdogan's son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar (12.9%).

A Family Name in the Spotlight

Bilal Erdogan's public profile has been significantly elevated in early 2026, with his increased visibility at high-profile events and alongside President Erdogan in meetings with foreign leaders intensifying succession speculation within Turkish political circles. According to people familiar with party discussions, the president's son has become the preferred candidate among AKP leadership despite his lack of elected experience.

"Erdoğan is an autocratic leader, but he has democratic legitimacy. Bilal does not," argues academic Burak Bilgehan Özpek, highlighting what political scientists describe as significant obstacles to dynastic succession. Scholar Seda Demiralp notes that many AKP voters oppose turning governance into what she calls a "family enterprise."

The Constitutional Clock Ticks

With President Erdogan's constitutional term expiring in 2028—after which he cannot technically run again under current rules—the AKP faces what one senior party official described as "the most critical transition in our history." The party currently lacks any formal succession mechanism, creating what analysts describe as a potential governance vacuum.

Efforts to establish a clear succession framework have hit a snag, according to multiple sources within the ruling coalition. Without a designated process, the AKP risks intense intra-party competition that could destabilize Turkey's political landscape. The support of coalition partner MHP would be critical for any dynastic succession strategy, though MHP officials have remained notably silent on the matter.

The Contenders Circle

An informal contest to win Erdogan's endorsement is already underway, with four primary contenders vying for position. Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the former intelligence chief, currently leads in polling among AKP supporters at 33.4%, followed closely by former interior minister Süleyman Soylu at 32.5%. Bilal Erdogan trails at 14.2%, while Selçuk Bayraktar, Erdogan's son-in-law and head of drone manufacturer Baykar, polls at 12.9%.

Bilal's advantages include his surname, which provides immediate name recognition, and his father's political favor. He has cultivated extensive networks across Turkish media, industry, and state institutions, including ties to Turkish Airlines and state broadcaster TRT. However, his lack of electoral experience and the controversial nature of dynastic succession present significant vulnerabilities.

Institutional Constraints and Political Calculations

If Erdogan were to resign or become incapacitated, the Turkish constitution requires early elections within 45 days, with Vice President Judet Yilmaz taking temporary power. However, the possibility exists that Turkey's next leader could take office without a legal or electoral mandate, particularly if Erdogan pursues constitutional amendments or other mechanisms to install his son.

Growing speculation about Erdogan's health condition—he turns 72 in February 2026—has accelerated succession discussions within ruling circles. Meanwhile, the opposition CHP held a formal primary in early 2026, with Ekrem Imamoglu winning the nomination, though Mansur Yavas, mayor of Ankara, remains a popular alternative candidate if Imamoglu faces legal obstacles.

The Road Ahead

The absence of a clear succession framework makes the coming months critical for Turkey's political stability. Whether succession occurs through regular elections in 2028 or through a snap vote, the AKP must devise an appointment process without precedent in its modern history. The scenario of Bilal Erdogan assuming power would shield the Erdogan family from political investigations into potential crimes and corruption, but faces significant opposition from both the broader electorate and segments of the ruling coalition.

Experts warn that any successor personally chosen by Erdogan will face an uphill legitimacy battle, with the challenge potentially steeper if the successor carries the Erdogan surname. As one Western diplomat based in Ankara put it: "This isn't just about who leads Turkey next—it's about whether the system Erdogan built can survive without him."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the polling percentage for Selçuk Bayraktar. He polled at 12.9%, not 13.9%. The article has been updated.