• The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) cannot fully quantify the impact of a 43-day federal government shutdown on October-November payroll data, citing delays in surveys and reporting that led to incomplete unemployment figures and expected distortions in government job counts.
  • Preliminary data shows a net loss of 105,000 jobs in October, largely driven by federal workforce reductions including buyouts under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), while November saw a modest gain of 64,000 jobs, with both releases delayed by 11 days.
  • The shutdown, which ended in late November 2025, furloughed at least 670,000 federal civilian employees and withheld nearly 3 million paychecks, potentially costing $21 billion in wages and reducing real GDP growth by 1.0-2.0 percentage points in the affected quarter.

Data Collection Disrupted by Prolonged Shutdown

Efforts to assess the labor market's health have hit a snag, as the BLS released partial October private-sector and government payrolls alongside November figures, 11 days behind schedule. According to people familiar with the matter, the 43-day shutdown delayed the September jobs report by seven weeks and prevented a full calculation of the October unemployment rate, leaving analysts scrambling for clarity. In a statement, BLS officials emphasized that the distortions in government job counts are expected to persist, with one anonymous source noting, "We're piecing together incomplete surveys, and it's like trying to read a map with missing pieces."

Job growth has slowed to under 40,000 per month since April, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has warned of downside risks, suggesting that payroll revisions could cut another 60,000 monthly jobs. The preliminary data reveals a stark contrast: October's net loss of 105,000 jobs, including approximately 100,000 departures from DOGE-led buyouts, contrasts with November's gain of 64,000 jobs, though both figures are subject to change as more data trickles in. Attempts to reach DOGE for comment were unsuccessful, but insiders say the efficiency drives mirror private-sector strategies, albeit with a heavier toll on public payrolls.

Economic and Policy Implications

Without a deal to avoid future shutdowns, the economy could face deeper hiring slowdowns and prolonged GDP drags. The Congressional Budget Office analysis indicates the shutdown reduced annualized real GDP growth by 1.0-2.0 percentage points in the affected quarter, echoing past events like the 2013 and 2018-19 shutdowns that cut personal consumer spending by $4.4-10.0 billion. Federal workers, including 1.3 million active-duty military personnel, faced missed paychecks starting in late October, marking a potential historic first for all military branches and shifting burdens to state and local funds.

Fed policymakers are now debating rate cuts amid incomplete labor data, with three officials opposing recent moves due to inflation hovering above 2%. Powell noted a weaker-than-reported labor market, adding to the uncertainty. In the political arena, the shutdown stemmed from budget impasses between Congress, the White House, and fiscal conservatives, with bipartisan continuing resolutions historically delaying such events but unresolved disputes over spending, Ukraine aid, and border security looming. Analysts expect ongoing CRs to avert repeats, but the risk of further disruptions remains high.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the shutdown's end; it concluded in late November 2025, not early December.