- Nearly half of surveyed bond strategists doubt the resilience of U.S. Treasuries as a safe-haven asset.
- Rising yields and parallel sell-offs in equities and crypto mark a departure from historical norms.
- Geopolitical tensions and fiscal uncertainty amplify market skepticism.
A Shift in Market Sentiment
A Reuters poll of 35 bond strategists revealed that 19 are concerned about the enduring safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries, traditionally the bedrock of global financial stability. The findings underscore growing unease as yields on 10-year and 30-year bonds hit post-2023 highs, diverging from their typical inverse relationship with equities during periods of stress.
Unprecedented Volatility
Recent trading sessions have seen Treasuries move in lockstep with risk assets—a phenomenon one market participant described as "systemic fear" about the U.S. losing its financial haven appeal. The Trump administration's aggressive trade policies and ballooning deficits have further eroded confidence, with one anonymous strategist noting, "The rules of the game are changing faster than portfolios can adapt."
Structural or Cyclical?
While short-term turbulence is expected to persist, most analysts argue that Treasuries' foundational role remains intact due to the lack of viable alternatives. "The market is testing boundaries," said a fixed-income portfolio manager, "but until there's a credible challenger to the dollar system, these are stress fractures, not structural collapses." The Treasury Department declined to comment on the poll results.
Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of strategists polled. The correct figure is 35, not 36.