- Baird expects Coinbase (COIN) to miss Q2 revenue estimates by roughly 8%, citing weaker crypto trading volumes and prices.
- The broker maintains a Neutral rating and $142 price target, warning that lower activity could weigh on results.
- Wall Street's 2027 earnings forecasts are seen as too optimistic, adding downside risk.
Baird analysts cautioned that the crypto exchange is likely to report second-quarter revenue about 8% below consensus, as trading volumes and digital asset prices have softened. The broker kept a Neutral rating and $142 price target on the stock, flagging that diminished trading activity could pressure near-term earnings. They also described Wall Street’s 2027 earnings projections as overly optimistic, suggesting further downside risk if growth assumptions prove too aggressive.
The warning comes amid a broader pullback in crypto trading, with transaction fees—Coinbase’s primary revenue driver—tracking lower. The company’s reliance on volume-sensitive fees makes it particularly vulnerable to market downturns, a pattern that has historically led to revenue misses and multiple compression. Baird’s note echoes similar cautions from other analysts who have trimmed estimates in recent weeks.
A spokesperson for Coinbase declined to comment on the analyst’s projections ahead of the earnings report.
The stock has already felt the pressure, slipping 2.3% in afternoon trading. The company is set to report Q2 results in early August, with investors bracing for a potentially weak quarter. Still, some bulls point to Coinbase’s growing subscription and services revenue as a buffer, though trading fees continue to dominate the top line.