• Deutsche Bank reiterates Buy rating on Tesla with a $345 price target but expects Q2 deliveries to fall short of consensus.
  • Projected 355K deliveries for Q2 2025, a 20% YoY decline, with regional weakness in Europe and China.
  • Model Q delays could push volume recovery to Q4, with 2025 deliveries forecasted down 10% to ~1.6M units.

Tesla Faces Delivery Headwinds

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is poised to miss Q2 2025 delivery expectations, according to Deutsche Bank, which projects 355,000 vehicles delivered—well below the Street’s ~380,000 estimate. The forecast represents a 20% year-over-year drop, driven by soft demand in Europe and a 9% decline in China. North America remains stable but faces pressure from high interest rates, forcing Tesla to rely on price cuts and special financing offers.

"The near-term setup is challenging," said one analyst familiar with Deutsche Bank’s research, citing macroeconomic headwinds and competitive pressures. "But the long-term thesis remains intact, especially with new models like the Model Q on the horizon."

Regional Weakness and Executive Turnover

Europe’s phaseout of EV subsidies and economic stagnation have dented demand, while China’s market sees rising competition from local automakers. Meanwhile, Tesla’s executive bench continues to thin—Omead Afshar, who oversaw sales and manufacturing in key regions, recently departed, adding to concerns about operational stability.

Attempts to reach Tesla for comment were unsuccessful. The company has historically rebounded from delivery misses, but this quarter’s shortfall comes amid heightened scrutiny of CEO Elon Musk’s political affiliations and their potential impact on brand perception.

The Road Ahead

Deutsche Bank maintains its bullish stance, betting on a late-2025 recovery fueled by new product launches, including the delayed Model Q. However, with 2025 deliveries now expected to drop 10% to ~1.6M units, investors may need patience. "Tesla’s innovation pipeline—robotaxis, AI, and energy storage—still sets it apart," the analyst noted. "But execution risks are mounting."