• Bernstein raised its U.S. e-commerce forecasts after estimating Q2 sales growth of 11%, up from 5-6% in recent quarters. The firm expects strong results from Etsy, eBay, and Wayfair, while Amazon's earnings will hinge more on AWS, where investors are looking for 30%+ cloud growth.
  • AI-driven capex is expected to rise further in 2027, signaling continued investment in personalization, automation, and cloud-related infrastructure across major e-commerce players.

A Strong Quarter for E-commerce

Bernstein analysts lifted their U.S. e-commerce growth forecasts, projecting a robust 11% year-over-year sales increase in the second quarter, according to a research note seen by investors. That represents a significant acceleration from the 5-6% growth seen in recent quarters, driven by resilient consumer spending and digital adoption.

The firm highlighted Etsy, eBay, and Wayfair as likely outperformers, each benefiting from niche market positioning and cost controls. Meanwhile, Amazon's results are expected to hinge on its cloud unit, AWS, where analysts anticipate revenue growth exceeding 30%. Amazon shares edged higher in premarket trading.

“The e-commerce landscape is strengthening, but the real story for Amazon remains AWS,” said a Bernstein analyst in the note. “Investors are laser-focused on cloud growth and AI-driven capex.”

AI and Cloud Take Center Stage

Bernstein also flagged that AI-driven capital expenditures are set to climb further into 2027, as companies invest in automation, personalization, and cloud infrastructure. This trend is expected to benefit Amazon and other cloud providers, while also driving operational efficiencies for e-commerce platforms.

“We see a bifurcated earnings path among e-commerce names,” the note said. “Platforms with strong AI and cloud integration will lead, while others may lag.”

Wayfair, which has been investing in its logistics network and AI tools for inventory management, could see margin improvements if consumer demand holds. Etsy and eBay are also leveraging AI for search and recommendations.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the quarter for the growth forecast. It is Q2 2025.