• Emirates expects oil prices to ease back to the mid-$60s to low-$70s per barrel over time, according to Chairman Tim Clark.
  • The outlook reflects a softer near-term demand picture and resilient supply, with geopolitical risks still in play.
  • Lower fuel costs could boost margins for airlines like Emirates, while Gulf exporters face shifting fiscal dynamics.

Speaking at an industry event, Emirates Group Chairman Tim Clark said oil prices are likely to trend downward toward the mid-$60s to low-$70s per barrel over the longer term, as supply remains resilient and demand growth moderates. “We see crude coming back to that range as the market balances,” Clark told reporters, adding that near-term volatility persists due to geopolitical uncertainties.

The forecast comes as Emirates Group continues to post strong financial results, including record half-year profits of around AED 12.2 billion ($3.3 billion) for the first half of fiscal 2025-26. The group’s airline and tourism businesses are sensitive to fuel costs, which account for a significant share of operating expenses. A sustained move lower in oil prices would provide a tailwind for margins.

Clark’s comments align with broader market expectations that OPEC+ discipline and recovering Asian demand will keep prices within a relatively narrow band, though downside risks remain if global economic growth slows. “The days of triple-digit oil are behind us for now,” he said, noting that structural shifts in energy demand and supply are keeping a lid on prices.

Market participants are watching inventory data and OPEC+ meeting signals closely. Without supply disruptions, the mid-$60s to low-$70s range appears achievable over the next 12 to 18 months, according to analysts. For Gulf economies that rely on oil revenue, such a price level would still support fiscal budgets, though lower revenues could prompt tighter spending.

Emirates has reached out for further comment, but Clark’s remarks offer a clear window into the group’s expectations for the energy landscape. The group continues to expand its global network, benefiting from strong travel demand even as fuel costs ease.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the profit figure for Emirates Group. The correct half-year profit is AED 12.2 billion.