• Negotiations between the EU and US are ongoing, with a deadline set for early July.
  • The EU has prepared a €95 billion retaliation list if talks fail, targeting key US sectors.
  • Political and economic stakes are high, with both sides seeking to avoid a full-blown trade war.

Deadline Looms for EU-US Trade Talks

Polish Trade Minister Michał Baranowski confirmed that the European Union and the United States are actively engaged in trade negotiations, with a critical deadline looming in early July. The discussions, which have gained visible momentum in recent weeks, aim to resolve long-standing disputes over tariffs and regulatory autonomy. However, significant obstacles remain, and failure to reach an agreement could trigger retaliatory measures from both sides.

Economic Stakes and Retaliation Threats

The EU has already drafted a €95 billion retaliation list, targeting US exports if talks collapse. Key sectors at risk include wine, spirits, and aircraft manufacturing, with Airbus and Boeing at the center of the dispute. The EU is particularly concerned about the current imbalance, where 70% of its exports to the US face tariffs. "We are prepared to act if the unbalance persists," an EU official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Political Dynamics and Member State Pressures

France, Italy, and Spain are leading efforts to protect their beverage industries from further US tariffs, recalling the temporary suspensions under the Trump administration. The EU is also resisting any deal that mirrors recent US agreements with the UK or China, which it views as unfavorable. "We cannot accept terms that undermine our regulatory autonomy," Baranowski emphasized.

What’s Next?

While both sides express cautious optimism, the path to a deal remains fraught with challenges. High-level meetings in Brussels and potential OECD forums could provide a last-minute breakthrough. But with the July deadline fast approaching, the risk of escalation looms large. Analysts warn that failure to compromise could reignite a transatlantic trade war, with far-reaching consequences for both economies.