• EU steel exports to the US plummeted 30% from June to December 2025 after 50% tariffs were imposed and extended.
  • Talks to ease tariffs are stalled, with the US linking progress to EU ratification of a broader trade framework deal.
  • The EU anticipates relief soon but faces deadlock amid US threats over Greenland and digital rules, complicating negotiations.

Efforts to restructure transatlantic trade relations have hit a snag as the European Union expects the United States to ease the impact of metals tariffs in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. This comes after EU steel exports to the US dropped sharply by 30% from June to December 2025, a direct consequence of 50% US tariffs imposed in June 2025 and extended in August to over 400 steel and aluminum products. Despite a broader EU-US trade framework agreement in July/August 2025 that capped most tariffs at 15%, steel was notably excluded, leaving the industry in a precarious position.

Talks to alleviate these steel tariffs remain stalled, with the US conditioning progress on the EU's ratification of the framework deal, which is pending a European Parliament vote scheduled for March 2026. The deadlock has been exacerbated by recent US threats related to Greenland and digital regulations, injecting uncertainty into the negotiations. "Without a deal, the industry would face continued damage," said a source close to the discussions, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the talks. The EU has proposed measures such as halving duty-free steel imports and imposing 50% tariffs on excess volumes over 18.3 million tons annually, partly in response to redirected Chinese steel flooding European markets.

Market trends show that the EU-US trade framework commits the EU to zero tariffs on US industrial goods and expanded access for US agriculture, with the US applying a maximum of 15% or most-favored-nation rates on most EU goods, though exceptions exist for sectors like aircraft and pharmaceuticals. In this context, steel and aluminum talks are focusing on quotas to ring-fence markets and secure supply chains. However, broader threats loom, including potential US Section 232 actions on critical minerals and derivatives, with a Commerce status report due in July 2026.

Politically, the tariffs were imposed under Section 232 for national security reasons, framed as a countermeasure against Chinese dumping. The July 2025 framework, negotiated between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and former US President Donald Trump, requires EU legislative approval, which has been delayed by Parliament amendments and external pressures. The EU froze ratification after a US Supreme Court ruling struck down some of Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, adding to the confusion. In response, the EU launched consultations on countermeasures, such as duties on US aircraft and machinery, if talks fail, targeting up to €95 billion in US imports.

Stakeholders, including Eurofer members, are feeling the pinch, with job losses and harm to downstream products like machinery. Axel Eggert, Director of Eurofer, described the tariffs as "blunt" and damaging in a recent statement. Attempts to reach US trade officials for comment were unsuccessful, but industry insiders note that the US aims to protect domestic reindustrialization efforts. The historical context echoes Trump-era tariffs from 2018, now tied to trade imbalances and Chinese overcapacity, with similar Section 232 actions revived in 2025.

Looking ahead, the short-term outlook hinges on the EU Parliament vote in March 2026; if unamended, it could unlock steel talks. The US is also demanding swift EU legislation to cut auto tariffs to 15%. In the long term, potential quota deals might emerge, but stalled ratification risks escalating countermeasures and heightened tensions. Experts predict that negotiations will depend heavily on EU implementation, with the US possibly expanding its list of derivatives quarterly. As of now, the EU's expectation for relief in the coming weeks remains tempered by the complex political and economic factors at play, with no immediate breakthrough in sight.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for the EU Parliament vote; it is scheduled for March 2026, not 2025.