• Jet fuel imports into Northwest Europe have fallen to record lows, with loadings below 200,000 barrels per day and total volumes near 2 million bpd, according to Morgan Stanley.
  • European refiners are operating at full capacity, but extra supply from Africa and the U.S. (100,000-150,000 bpd) cannot replace lost Middle East flows (~300,000 bpd).
  • Airlines are adjusting: Ryanair remains flat, while Wizz Air, TUI, and Lufthansa cut capacity, with Lufthansa making the deepest cuts.

Record Low Imports

Jet fuel imports into Northwest Europe have slumped to unprecedented lows, as Middle Eastern supply remains constrained. Morgan Stanley noted that loadings have dipped below 200,000 barrels per day, with total volumes hovering around 2 million bpd—a fraction of pre-crisis levels. The shortfall underscores persistent tightness in European aviation fuel supply.

European refiners are already running near full capacity, limiting their ability to boost domestic production. Additional cargoes from Africa and the U.S. have provided only marginal relief, adding roughly 100,000 to 150,000 bpd, but that has failed to offset the loss of approximately 300,000 bpd from the Middle East. A brief uptick in March arrivals offered only temporary respite, according to market sources.

Elevated Margins and Airline Response

The supply squeeze is expected to keep jet fuel margins elevated, adding pressure on airlines already grappling with high costs. Carriers are responding with capacity adjustments: Ryanair has held its schedule flat, while Wizz Air and TUI have announced cuts. Lufthansa is reducing the most aggressively, trimming flying time or seats across its network. The moves reflect the industry's struggle to absorb rising fuel expenses without passing them fully to passengers.

"The lack of alternative supply sources is keeping the market tight," said an analyst familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Refiners are maxed out, and imports aren't filling the gap. Airlines are left to manage the fallout."

Attempts to reach Morgan Stanley for comment were unsuccessful.

Correction: A previous version of this article misstated the total import volume. It is approximately 2 million bpd, not 2 million barrels.