• EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen warns that while oil and gas supplies remain available, nearly 50 million Europeans cannot adequately heat their homes.
  • Wholesale gas prices briefly hit €100/MWh, triple pre-war levels, as storage sits at 75% versus 83% a year earlier.
  • Emergency oil releases and talks with refiners aim to ease pressure, but officials caution against complacency on supply security.

Affordability Over Availability

The European Union does not currently expect a security-of-supply crisis for oil and gas, but it faces a serious affordability crisis, according to Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen. Speaking ahead of a meeting of EU energy ministers in Luxembourg on October 29, Jørgensen said that fuel remains available, yet many households and businesses cannot comfortably pay for it. He estimated that nearly 50 million Europeans cannot adequately heat their homes, a figure that could rise this winter.

“We do not expect a problem with security of oil and gas supply, but citizens are struggling to pay their bills,” Jørgensen said, according to officials familiar with the matter. The commissioner cautioned against complacency, noting that global fuel-market disruptions from wars in Iran, Ukraine and Yemen continue to threaten Europe’s energy security even as direct suppliers have diversified.

Market Pressures Mount

European wholesale gas briefly reached €100 per megawatt-hour on October 28, the first time since December 2022, and is trading around three times its pre-Iran-war level. EU gas storage is approximately 75% full, compared with 83% a year earlier. These are wholesale prices and storage measures, not a direct forecast of household bills, but they underscore the strain on energy markets.

The immediate shock stems from fighting that has damaged refineries and disrupted energy shipping through the Black Sea, Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Europe is consequently exposed to global fuel-market disruptions even when it has diversified its direct suppliers. Higher energy costs squeeze household purchasing power and business competitiveness, with transport, aviation and energy-intensive industries particularly exposed to expensive diesel, jet fuel and gas.

Policy Response and Challenges

The Commission opened talks with European refiners on October 28 about increasing production, potentially through changes to technical specifications. These are discussions, not confirmed blanket regulatory exemptions. Jørgensen noted that roughly one-quarter of EU refineries have closed over two decades, reducing total refining capacity by about 10%. The Commission now treats adequate refining capacity as both an economic and security priority.

France’s energy minister, Roland Lescure, said Europe will release more than 42 million barrels of emergency oil stocks over the next three months, half of it diesel. This follows a broader Western agreement to accelerate releases exceeding 400 million barrels. The policy response has two horizons: immediate relief through emergency stock releases and targeted assistance for vulnerable households, and structural reform including proposed electricity-tax and grid-fee changes. The tax proposals remain contested, with Swedish and Polish ministers voicing opposition before the meeting.

Structural Warnings

Internationally, the debate is shifting from replacing Russian energy to questioning import dependence itself. Sweden’s energy minister, Ebba Busch, warned that switching from Russian to American gas does not eliminate geopolitical vulnerability. Jørgensen said Europe now uses 18% less gas than in 2022 and has diversified away from a position in which Russia supplied about 45% of its gas.

Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting has warned that Europe has less storage protection and fewer options to replace disrupted supply quickly. Jørgensen, citing the International Energy Agency, said the global diesel market is expected to remain tight well into 2027. That is an outlook, not a guaranteed price trajectory.

Technical discussions with refiners will continue, with another meeting planned for early 2027. The central policy challenge is to protect consumers now without reinforcing the import dependence that leaves Europe exposed to the next external shock.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the headline as omitting the words “a problem with.” The commissioner’s message is that Europe does not expect a supply-security crisis but faces an affordability crisis.