• Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh will participate in a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva on October 16 in Bangkok.
  • Investors will watch for signals on whether the Fed will hike rates again in October or December, after September's quarter-point increase.
  • The IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings run October 12-18, focusing on inflation, debt, and AI.

Warsh to Take Stage at IMF Meetings

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is scheduled to appear at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings in Bangkok on October 16 for a fireside chat with IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva, according to the IMF's agenda. The event, set for 10:30-11:00 a.m. Bangkok time (October 15, 11:30 p.m.-midnight EDT), will be livestreamed and comes on the heels of the meetings' plenary session.

Warsh's remarks will be closely scrutinized for any hint on the path of U.S. interest rates after the Fed raised its benchmark rate by a quarter point in September to a range of 3.75%-4%. Minutes released October 7 showed most policymakers see another increase as appropriate before year-end, though timing depends on incoming data. Markets are currently pricing an October pause followed by a December hike, but not everyone agrees. Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic expects increases in both October and December, according to MarketWatch (NWSA).

The appearance is not a policy decision or a scheduled speech, and the IMF agenda does not specify Warsh's topics or announce any new initiatives. Still, it offers a rare public window into the thinking of a chairman who has eschewed forward guidance since taking office in May.

Inflation and Rate Outlook in Focus

Warsh will speak against a backdrop of stubborn inflation. At his September press conference, he noted unemployment around 4.1%, resilient spending, and robust capital investment, arguing that financial conditions were not meaningfully restrictive. But subsequent data showed August headline PCE inflation at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 3%—below what he had cited, but still well above the Fed's 2% target.

In September, Warsh acknowledged that rate increases cannot directly fix energy or food price shocks, but said the goal is to prevent those shocks from spilling into broader inflation and expectations. He also declined to discuss his conversations with President Trump, framing Fed independence as staying within the central bank's monetary-policy mandate.

Investors will be listening for whether Warsh signals greater urgency on tightening—which could challenge expectations for an October pause—or emphasizes improving inflation trends, reinforcing the case for patience. As Warsh said in September, "I'm not in the forward guidance business," so a discussion that sticks to principles without telegraphing the next move would be consistent with his style.

Global Spillovers and AI in the Spotlight

The IMF meetings provide a forum for discussing how U.S. monetary tightening interacts with high financing costs and sovereign debt risks around the world. Warsh has previously noted that Fed decisions spill over to other economies and that foreign policy feeds back into the U.S.

AI investment is another theme. Warsh attributed part of the rise in long-term Treasury yields to stronger growth and competition for capital from major technology companies. The IMF agenda separately addresses AI's effects on employment, taxation, and financial infrastructure. A Fed task force examining AI's implications for monetary policy is expected to report by year-end.

Other events on the IMF calendar could shape the backdrop for Warsh's appearance. The World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report briefings are set for October 13, followed by the Fiscal Monitor on October 14. These will provide updated forecasts for growth, financing risks, and public debt.

Thailand expects more than 15,000 participants from 190 countries for the meetings, and the government has announced work-from-home and special-holiday arrangements during October 12-16 to manage disruption. Local reporting says the government also plans to propose a Bangkok Declaration on digital finance and climate resilience, though that remains a proposal.

Civil-society groups are using the meetings to scrutinize debt, social protection, and climate resilience. The official program includes sessions on debt liquidity challenges and IMF lending.

A spokesperson for the Federal Reserve declined to comment beyond the published schedule.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of the event in EDT. It is October 15, 11:30 p.m.-midnight EDT, not October 16.