• Federal Reserve officials are increasingly relying on anecdotal information due to the suspension of official economic data collection during the ongoing government shutdown.
  • October 2025 will become a permanent blind spot in the official U.S. economic record, with key reports like employment and inflation data indefinitely delayed.
  • The data blackout has forced markets and policymakers to depend on less reliable private sector data and informal business surveys for economic assessment.

Federal Reserve Governor Hammack emphasized Thursday that anecdotal data has become critically important for the central bank's decision-making process during the unprecedented government shutdown that began in October 2025. The comments, made during a virtual economic forum, highlight the extraordinary measures the Fed is taking to navigate what officials privately describe as the most significant data disruption in modern history.

The shutdown has halted nearly all federal statistical operations, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly Current Population Survey that underpins official unemployment statistics. The only exception was September's Consumer Price Index, which was released due to an emergency recall of staff needed for Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. October's CPI and jobs reports remain indefinitely delayed and may never be produced, according to people familiar with the matter.

"We're operating in uncharted territory," Hammack said during the forum, though he stopped short of detailing specific policy implications. "The absence of reliable, comprehensive data requires us to be more creative in our assessment of economic conditions."

Market participants have reported increasing reliance on private data sources, though these come with significant limitations. One major payroll processor recently withdrew access to underlying data that Fed economists had been using, according to sources familiar with the situation. The move has forced regional Fed banks to intensify their outreach to business contacts across various sectors.

A senior economist at one regional Federal Reserve bank, who asked not to be identified discussing internal procedures, said their team has doubled the number of business surveys and CEO roundtables in recent weeks. "We're essentially building our own real-time economic dashboard from scratch," the economist said. "The quality varies dramatically, and we can't verify representativeness the way we could with government data."

The data vacuum has created particular challenges for assessing labor market conditions and inflation trends—the twin pillars of Fed policy decisions. Several Fed officials have expressed concern privately that the lack of October data could complicate upcoming policy meetings, though the central bank has not indicated any delay in its decision-making schedule.

Efforts to reach spokespeople at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Census Bureau were unsuccessful, as both agencies have minimal staff during the shutdown. Congressional aides from both parties have expressed alarm about the damage to the statistical system, with some warning that the government's inability to publish core economic statistics undermines both market functioning and democratic accountability.

The current shutdown, now entering its sixth week, has already exceeded the duration and impact of previous government closures in 1995-1996 and 2013. During those episodes, data releases were eventually caught up and published. This time, economists worry that October 2025 may remain a permanent gap in the official economic record, affecting analysis for years to come.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for data publication resumption. While new release schedules will be announced after the shutdown ends, significant delays and data quality issues are expected to persist.