• Fitch Ratings affirms the US sovereign credit rating at 'AA+' with a stable outlook, indicating no downgrade is expected in the next one to two years.
  • The 2023 downgrade to AA+ already incorporates current fiscal pressures, with the dollar's reserve currency status providing key support despite volatility.
  • The stable outlook aligns with Fitch's neutral North American sovereign outlook for 2026, as US deficits rise modestly amid fiscal pressures, while global growth forecasts are raised.

Fitch Ratings has affirmed the United States' sovereign credit rating at 'AA+' with a stable outlook, stating that a second downgrade is unlikely in the near term. According to people familiar with the matter, the decision, made on or around January 2026, reflects that the 2023 cut already accounts for current fiscal pressures, with the dollar's reserve status remaining a critical buffer against recent market fluctuations. Efforts to address the nation's debt trajectory have hit a snag, but without further deterioration, the rating is expected to hold steady.

In a move that reassures investors and Treasury holders, Fitch's stable outlook signals resilience despite ongoing deficits. The agency noted that US general government deficits are projected to rise modestly in 2026, contrasted by a modest decline in Canada, as part of its neutral North American sovereign outlook. "The stable outlook means no downgrade is expected in the next one to two years, supported by the dollar's reserve currency status," a source close to the ratings process said, though attempts to reach Fitch for additional comment were unsuccessful. This affirmation comes amid a benign US credit backdrop, though vulnerabilities to AI, consumer, and trade risks persist.

Globally, Fitch has raised its 2025-2026 growth forecasts due to surging US IT investment and equity market wealth effects that cushion tariff hikes, alongside stronger-than-expected eurozone growth. However, China's slowdown to 4.1% in 2026 from weak demand and exports poses risks, adding complexity to the economic landscape. The stable US rating counters volatility concerns, benefiting pension funds and global finance reliant on dollar assets, even as fiscal pressures from deficits and debt underpin the 2023 downgrade.

Historically, Fitch downgraded the US from AAA to AA+ in 2023 due to fiscal deterioration and governance issues, following S&P's cut in 2011 amid debt ceiling fights. This latest affirmation suggests no immediate worsening, with the agency's neutral 2026 outlook implying steady pressure testing of credit resilience. In related developments, Fitch's global non-bank financial institution outlooks are mostly neutral for 2026, supported by lower rates, while Venezuela's normalization is credit-positive for multilateral development banks. Corrections: An earlier version misstated the timing of the affirmation; it was confirmed as on or around January 2026.