• Spot gold turns positive, last up 0.2% at $4,066.39/oz, as the Fed holds rates steady.
  • Two Fed officials dissented in favor of a hike, signaling a hawkish tilt.
  • Oil-driven inflation and elevated Treasury yields continue to pressure the metal.

A Modest Rebound

Spot gold erased earlier losses to trade up 0.2% at $4,066.39 an ounce, a modest intraday recovery that comes amid a tug-of-war between bargain hunters and macroeconomic headwinds. Earlier in the session, the metal had slipped 0.2% to $4,050.55, according to Reuters (TRI) data.

The move higher followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold its policy rate at 3.75%–4%, a pause after September’s increase. However, the reprieve may be short-lived: two officials—Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack—dissented in favor of another quarter-point hike. Futures markets now imply an 85% probability of a December increase, according to CME (CME) data cited by CNBC (VSNT).

Fed Pause Fails to Soothe

The Fed’s decision, while anticipated, did little to alter the calculus for gold investors. Immediately after the announcement, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield hovered around 5.02%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. A stronger dollar and expectations of higher-for-longer rates have been persistent drags.

“The risk of a more hawkish Fed is weighing on bullion,” said Capital Economics economist Hamad Hussain, pointing to oil’s rise above 1% following an attack on a Saudi Arabian refinery, which renewed inflation concerns.

Bargain Hunting Provides a Floor

Despite the headwinds, physical buyers have helped limit declines below $4,000. Bloomberg reported that Chinese household demand strengthened as prices softened, while investors sold gold to cover losses during the previous week’s AI-stock selloff. Gold touched $3,975 on October 23—its lowest since July 20—before recovering to $4,020.60 and then $4,055.14 in subsequent sessions.

The broader precious metals complex was mixed: silver fell 0.5%, platinum edged up 0.1%, and palladium slipped 0.4% in the same snapshot. Analysts have also trimmed their 2026 platinum and palladium forecasts, mirroring downgrades to gold expectations.

What’s Next

Attention now turns to Thursday’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation release. Independent analyst Nikos Tzabouras told Reuters that softer PCE data and a less hawkish Fed stance could lift bullion. Conversely, persistent inflation and stronger expectations of a December hike would reinforce the current interest-rate headwind.

A Reuters survey found that analysts cut their 2026 gold-price forecasts for a second consecutive quarter, citing high yields, dollar strength, and sustained restrictive policy. They nevertheless expect a recovery in 2027—a conditional outlook that hinges on the trajectory of inflation and monetary policy.

Clarification: The $4,066.39 quote could not be independently verified and should be treated as a supplied market snapshot.