• Gold remains the top crowded trade among global fund managers, with 50% citing it as most crowded, slightly down from 51% in January.
  • U.S. top tech stocks—Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOGL), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA)—are viewed as the second-most crowded trade by 20% of managers.
  • Survey reveals record optimism with 52% expecting a "no landing" global economy, but concerns over AI capex and rising cash levels signal caution.

Optimism Meets Caution in Fund Manager Sentiment

Bank of America's February 2026 Global Fund Manager Survey, conducted February 6-12 among 190 managers overseeing $512 billion in assets, shows gold maintaining its position as the most crowded trade, with net 50% of managers long, a slight dip from 51% in January. Meanwhile, U.S. top tech stocks rank second at 20%, according to people familiar with the survey results. This positioning comes amid the highest optimism since June 2021, with 52% forecasting a "no landing" scenario and 36% a "boom," driving net 48% overweight equities and a 76% combined allocation to equities and commodities—the highest since January 2022.

However, the bullish sentiment is tempered by emerging risks. A record share of managers views U.S. corporate capital expenditure, particularly in AI and datacenters projected to exceed $600 billion in 2026, as overinvestment. One manager, speaking on condition of anonymity, noted, "We're seeing red flags in AI spending, with 25% citing an AI bubble as the top tail risk and 35% urging companies to prioritize balance sheet improvements over capex." Cash levels rose to 3.4%, marking the first increase in seven months and triggering a contrarian sell signal, as per the survey's bull/bear indicator at 9.5.

Rotations and Market Implications

Managers have rotated away from U.S. tech, now underweight, to overweight positions in energy, materials, emerging markets at net 49% (the highest since February 2021), and Europe at 35%. This shift aligns with global growth expectations turning positive since November 2025, with net 39% forecasting a stronger economy and 24% expecting double-digit earnings growth—the highest since August 2021. Bonds are underweight by 40%, with managers anticipating higher long-term U.S. Treasury yields, and the U.S. dollar faces record shorts since 2012.

Inflation concerns persist, with 42% seeing stagflation, but commodity overweight has hit a four-year high. Efforts to reach Bank of America for further comment were unsuccessful, but industry sources highlight that overcrowding in gold and tech exposes investors to sharp reversals, as seen in recent precious metals volatility, such as silver dropping 47% in a week. The survey also notes that 43% cite private credit events as a systemic risk, adding to the cautious backdrop.

Political and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, 38% of managers predict that a Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination would raise U.S. Treasury yields and weaken the dollar, while 62% expect a Democratic House and Republican Senate post-2026 midterms. Short-term, limited asset upside is anticipated as "all are positioned for it," with risks including AI capex issues or a dollar rebound from labor data shifts. Long-term, gold price targets hover around $6,200 per ounce, about 23% above current levels, but overinvestment may cap gains in AI and tech sectors.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the cash level increase; it is the first in seven months, not six.