• Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) projects Anthropic will not turn free cash flow positive until 2030, when it expects the company to generate $33.6 billion, according to the Financial Times.
  • The forecast comes as Anthropic launches its IPO roadshow, offering 825 million shares at $70–$78 each to raise up to $64.4 billion, with Goldman and Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) leading the underwriting.
  • The prediction underscores the tension between Anthropic's explosive revenue growth and its massive $895.4 billion in future computing commitments, which weigh on the path to sustainable cash generation.

Goldman Sachs expects Anthropic to remain free-cash-flow negative until 2030, when it projects the company will generate $33.6 billion, the Financial Times reported. The forecast, which could not be independently verified, offers a stark reminder that rapid sales growth does not guarantee near-term cash generation, especially for a company with enormous infrastructure obligations.

The projection comes as Anthropic launches its IPO roadshow, offering 825 million shares at an indicative $70–$78 each, according to [Reuters (NASDAQ (NASDAQ:NDAQ):TRI)](https://www.roic.ai/quote/NASDAQ:TRI). The public offering could raise $64.4 billion, and a separate $26 billion private placement would bring the combined amount to as much as $90.4 billion. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are leading the syndicate, and the shares are expected to trade on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT. Valuation reporting remains inconsistent: Reuters gives a ceiling of $1.02 trillion, while the FT's November 10 headline says up to $1.4 trillion—a discrepancy that may reflect different valuation bases or evolving terms.

Representatives for Goldman Sachs and Anthropic did not respond to requests for comment.

A Different Number to Watch

While the $33.6 billion free cash flow figure is eye-catching, it should not be confused with revenue. In the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic generated approximately $33.2 billion in revenue, up from roughly $2.5 billion a year earlier. Annual revenue reached $4.59 billion in 2025, compared with $386 million in 2024. Third-quarter revenue was approximately $17 billion, up 47% quarter over quarter, though sequential growth slowed from 144% in the preceding quarter.

The distinction matters. Much of Anthropic's customer revenue depends on actual usage, while many computing contracts require multiyear payments regardless of utilization. Rapid adoption can make that capacity valuable; weaker demand could leave expensive obligations in place. The company posted a $567 million operating loss in the third quarter, following a $974 million operating profit in the second quarter, and Bloomberg reported a $23.3 billion net loss for the period. For the first nine months, the net loss was $104 billion, including a $94 billion financing-related accounting charge. That headline loss is not equivalent to cash consumed; the accounting adjustment dominates it.

Anthropic's future computing and infrastructure commitments total approximately $895.4 billion, of which $447.5 billion is expected through 2030 and $69.8 billion is due within the next 12 months. Those are contractual obligations, not revenue or spending already incurred.

IPO Dynamics and Underwriter Ties

The timing of the Goldman forecast is notable. The bank is also an underwriter on Anthropic's IPO, a commercial relationship that provides relevant context for assessing the projection, though it does not by itself establish that the forecast is unsound. The valuation range of up to $1.02 trillion is substantially below the roughly $1.5 trillion discussed recently, illustrating the tension between extraordinary growth and investor concern about infrastructure costs. Goldman and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering, and the IPO terms remain subject to change.

The company, founded in 2021 by former OpenAI researchers including CEO Dario Amodei and President Daniela Amodei, operates as a public-benefit corporation and plans to retain that status after listing. Its seven founders will collectively control a Class F share carrying 50.1% of voting power over specified corporate matters, while an independent trust also plays a central governance role.

Growth Drivers and Pricing Pressure

Anthropic's expansion reflects demand for coding and enterprise applications, including tools aimed at healthcare, financial services and legal services. But pricing power is not assured. New-model price reductions and contractual discounts reduced third-quarter revenue by approximately $600 million relative to what it otherwise would have recorded, according to reporting on its amended prospectus. Higher usage can therefore coexist with downward pressure on prices.

Morningstar (NASDAQ:MORN) argues that continued model improvements can unlock new demand and eventually produce robust free cash flow, even as computing bills grow. The cautious case, however, points to slowing sequential revenue growth, enormous infrastructure commitments and dependence on a concentrated group of customers and suppliers—five customers accounted for a quarter of Anthropic's sales this year, according to CNN, with some also competitors.

Uncertainty Reigns

Without the underlying Goldman forecast, key questions remain unanswered: whether the $33.6 billion free cash flow figure is a base or optimistic scenario, which products drive it, and what assumptions Goldman makes about pricing, computing supply and competition. Earlier reporting put Anthropic's own projected cash-flow breakeven in 2028, illustrating how substantially forecasts can differ. Bill Gates, in a November interview with the FT, offered a counterweight to precise long-range forecasts, noting that intense competition makes revenue forecasting even one to three years ahead very difficult.

For now, the projection stands as an attributed forecast—not company guidance or an established outcome. Investors will get a clearer picture as the IPO process unfolds and Anthropic begins reporting as a public company.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of Anthropic's third-quarter operating loss relative to its second-quarter operating profit.