• Goldman Sachs (GS) analysts warn Brent crude could surge to $100 per barrel if exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain severely disrupted for several weeks.
  • The bank's baseline scenario assumes five more days at roughly 15% of normal export volumes, followed by a gradual month-long recovery, with Brent averaging $76 in Q2.
  • A worst-case scenario of five extra weeks at current low volumes could drive prices above $100, echoing 2022 levels after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Goldman Sachs has issued a stark warning that global oil prices could spike to $100 per barrel if exports through the critical Strait of Hormuz stay depressed for an extended period. The analysis, circulated internally and reviewed by sources familiar with the matter, outlines scenarios where prolonged disruptions trigger a sharp tightening in an otherwise well-supplied market.

According to people briefed on the research, the bank's commodities team modeled a baseline where exports remain at about 15% of normal levels for five additional days before a slow recovery over a month. That would push Brent crude to average $76 per barrel in the second quarter, up from current levels near $71. But the real risk, they caution, lies in greater damage to regional oil infrastructure or a more protracted Hormuz closure.

"Without a swift resolution, the market could face a supply crunch that sends prices soaring," one analyst involved in the forecast said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the details aren't public. Efforts to reach Goldman Sachs for official comment weren't immediately successful.

The warning contrasts with the bank's longer-term outlook, which recently revised 2026 price forecasts upward to $60 for Brent and $56 for WTI due to lower-than-expected OECD inventories. Those projections assume no major supply shocks, with a global surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day anticipated absent disruptions. But the Strait of Hormuz scenario injects fresh volatility into that calm view.

Tensions around the vital waterway, through which about a fifth of the world's oil passes, have simmered for years, though no current incidents matching the headline's severity appear in recent reports. Past disruptions, like the 2019 attacks on tankers, caused temporary spikes. This time, analysts point to regional vulnerabilities highlighted by recent Kazakhstan outages and ongoing geopolitical friction.

Market reaction has been muted so far, with Brent hovering near $71 and WTI around $65 amid disciplined U.S. production and OPEC+ restraint. But traders are watching closely, as even a modest supply squeeze could ripple through economies, lifting energy costs and inflation pressures. Higher prices would benefit producers in the Middle East and U.S. shale patches, while consumers brace for costlier fuel.

Goldman's research factors in potential downside risks too, such as sanctions relief on Iran or Russia that could cut Brent by $5. The base case excludes major disruptions, but the warning underscores how quickly sentiment can shift. As one industry insider put it, "It's a reminder that in oil markets, geopolitics often trump fundamentals."

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timeline for price impacts; the $100 scenario relates to a worst-case disruption period, not immediate forecasts.