• Insurance activity in the Gulf has cooled as tanker owners hesitate to transit the Strait of Hormuz due to unresolved safety concerns, uncertainty over Iranian permissions and tolls, and lack of full confidence in the fragile ceasefire.
  • A U.S.-backed reinsurance proposal aims to restore confidence by providing underwriting support for hull, machinery, and cargo, targeting up to $20 billion in losses on a rolling basis, but coverage remains selective and not a blanket solution.
  • Iran has signaled tighter control of Hormuz passage, including a planned cap on daily vessel numbers and imposition of tolls payable in cryptocurrency or yuan, formalizing cost and access constraints.

Insurance requests for ships transiting the Gulf have ground to a halt, according to industry sources, as tanker owners hold back from committing to voyages through the Strait of Hormuz. The pause reflects deep-seated safety worries, ongoing uncertainty around Iranian tolls and permissions, and skepticism about the durability of recent ceasefire efforts, even as some insurance options exist.

Efforts to restructure risk in the region have hit a snag, with a U.S.-backed reinsurance proposal—designed to provide underwriting support for up to $20 billion in losses—facing execution hurdles. Coverage under this plan remains selective, excluding environmental or pollution risks, and relies on coordination with CENTCOM and selected U.S. partners. "It's a policy push to revive activity, but private insurers are treading carefully due to the geopolitical risk," said one person familiar with the matter, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Tanker traffic through the Strait has fallen noticeably following recent strikes and hostilities, with vessels anchoring offshore as insurers retreat from war-risk coverage. Some ships have required inspections or repairs, shortening fleet availability and further reducing throughput. Without a deal to stabilize transit, companies could face prolonged delays and higher costs.

Iran's moves add another layer of friction. Tehran has outlined plans to cap daily vessel transits at roughly 12 ships and impose tolls payable in cryptocurrency or yuan, with different tiers for oil-friendly versus restricted vessels. This formalizes access constraints at a time when risk perceptions are already elevated, according to sources briefed on the discussions. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

In the short term, expect continued volatility in insurance pricing and higher war-risk premiums, with periodic vessel delays as actors test risk appetite. The longer-term outlook hinges on whether U.S.-backed backstops and Iran's toll framework can stabilize transit or if alternative routes gain traction. For now, the standoff underscores how geopolitical tensions are reshaping global energy trade dynamics, with spillovers into shipping rates and supply chain reliability.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the coverage scope of the U.S. reinsurance proposal; it targets hull, machinery, and cargo but not environmental risks.