• Harley-Davidson pulls its 2025 financial guidance amid escalating EU tariffs on American-made motorcycles.
  • The EU’s retaliatory tariffs could raise prices by up to 56%, severely impacting demand in Harley’s second-largest market.
  • Analysts warn of long-term damage to Harley’s European operations, with potential revenue declines and market share losses.

Trade tensions force harley’s hand

Harley-Davidson has withdrawn its financial outlook for 2025, citing “major uncertainties” stemming from retaliatory EU tariffs on U.S.-made motorcycles. The EU’s proposed tariffs—which could total 56%—are a direct response to recent U.S. steel and aluminum import duties, creating a precarious situation for the iconic American brand.

“The European market is critical for Harley, and these tariffs could make our bikes unaffordable for many riders,” a company spokesperson said in a statement. Harley’s European dealers are already bracing for price hikes that could push models like the Road Glide from $27,999 in the U.S. to over $124,000 in Denmark.

A familiar challenge with fewer options

This isn’t Harley’s first rodeo with EU tariffs. In 2018, the company shifted some production overseas to mitigate similar trade barriers. But this time, regulatory hurdles and supply chain complexities limit its flexibility. CEO Jochen Zeitz has emphasized resilience, but analysts question whether Harley can absorb the blow without drastic measures.

“Even a 10–20% price increase, combined with anti-U.S. sentiment, could be a death knell for Harley in Europe,” said Michael Uhlarik, an industry analyst. The company’s 2024 revenue already fell 11% to $5.2 billion, with Europe and Asia-Pacific sales leading the decline.

Broader implications for u.s. exporters

The EU’s tariffs target other American exports like whiskey and boats, signaling a broader trade standoff. Harley’s predicament underscores the risks for U.S. manufacturers reliant on global markets. While the company explores workarounds—including its electric LiveWire line—the immediate outlook remains cloudy.

Harley’s leadership has called for congressional action to ease trade tensions, but with negotiations stalled, the road ahead looks rough. Investors will be watching closely as the company navigates what could be a defining challenge for its European ambitions.