- Hezbollah says it has not been notified of a ceasefire start time, casting doubt on the imminence of a halt to hostilities.
- The delay highlights ongoing negotiations over guarantees and sequencing, with no firm deal in place.
- Markets and humanitarian groups remain on edge as ambiguity persists over the timeline for de-escalation.
No Word on Ceasefire Start
A senior Hezbollah official said Thursday that the group has not yet received any notification about when a ceasefire would begin, according to people familiar with the matter. The statement underscores the fragile state of talks aimed at ending weeks of cross-border fighting between the Iran-backed militia and Israel.
“Until now, there is no clear timing communicated to us,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Efforts to reach a deal have been mediated by the U.S. and regional powers, but progress has been incremental, with both sides demanding concrete guarantees before any pause in fighting.
Conditionality and Stalled Talks
Hezbollah has historically insisted on clear sequencing and verification mechanisms in any ceasefire arrangement, a position that has complicated previous rounds of diplomacy. Without a deal, the risk of further escalation remains high, with analysts warning that continued ambiguity could fuel miscalculations on the ground.
“The lack of notification suggests that key conditions remain unresolved,” said a regional security expert. “Without a firm timeline, the situation could deteriorate rapidly.”
Market Ripples and Humanitarian Strain
The uncertainty has weighed on regional markets, with Israeli bonds dipping and energy traders pricing in a higher risk premium for Eastern Mediterranean shipping. Prolonged fighting has also displaced thousands of civilians on both sides of the border, with aid groups warning of a worsening humanitarian crisis.
A spokesperson for the International Committee of the Red Cross said that “without a clear ceasefire, we cannot safely reach those in need.” The organization has called for an immediate humanitarian pause to allow for aid deliveries.
What’s Next?
Diplomatic sources suggest that a potential framework could involve a phased de-escalation, starting with a cessation of hostilities and followed by the withdrawal of heavy weapons from border areas. A buffer zone monitored by the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers would then be established, with a timetable for the return of displaced civilians.
However, until Hezbollah receives formal notification of a start time, the path to any ceasefire remains uncertain. Officials have noted that negotiations are ongoing but declined to provide a timeline for a breakthrough.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that a ceasefire had been agreed. In fact, no deal has been finalized.