• A fragile US-Iran ceasefire has not restored normal shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with only a handful of vessels moving compared to the typical 135 daily transits.
  • Iran is tightening control by requiring ships to coordinate with its military and use designated safe routes, citing mine risks, which has deterred most traffic and caused some tankers to abort crossings.
  • The oil market remains constrained, with physical supply tight and uncertainty delaying a full reopening for weeks or months, according to shipping groups.

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains largely frozen despite a fragile US-Iran ceasefire, with only a minority of Iran-linked vessels moving, far below the usual daily transits. Iran is asserting formal control by introducing designated safe routes and requiring ships to coordinate with its military, citing mine risks. In practice, this has deterred most traffic—some tankers have even aborted crossings, according to people familiar with the matter.

A few Chinese tankers loaded with Saudi and Iraqi crude approached the strait but stopped short, highlighting ongoing uncertainty. Around the region, oil flows remain constrained and physical supply is tight, with traders facing higher costs and risk premiums. UAE oil chief Sultan Al Jaber said bluntly: "The Strait is not open." While Iran claims vessels can pass, access is conditional and controlled, raising concerns over bottlenecks and insurance considerations.

Shipping groups warn the situation is far from resolved, with efforts to normalize traffic hitting a snag. Concerns over mines and safety could delay a full reopening for weeks or months, even if traffic resumes gradually. Without a deal to ease military coordination, the corridor would remain disrupted, impacting global energy pricing. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

In a brief update, sources indicate that the ceasefire adds a temporary layer of stability, but the broader US-Iran confrontation keeps the situation fragile. International actors are watching closely for any provocation that could derail the ceasefire, with a two-week window for coordination. Historically, Hormuz has been a critical chokepoint, with past disruptions triggering volatility, though a lasting closure is generally avoided due to economic costs.