• Iran and Oman are negotiating a revised Strait of Hormuz transit framework to restore shipping stability.
  • The phased plan would see traffic initially split between northern and southern lanes, with a eventual shift to a central corridor.
  • Transit fees would be service-based, not cargo-value-based, and Gulf states back a joint regional mechanism.

Fragile Prospects

Talks between Tehran and Muscat have gained momentum this week, according to a source familiar with the discussions, as the two countries seek to ease tensions that have rattled global energy markets. The proposed framework, which has yet to be finalized, would introduce a more structured transit system through the strategic waterway, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes.

The plan, as currently envisioned, would initially route ships entering the strait via a northern lane managed by Iran, while outbound traffic would use a southern lane under Omani oversight. After a transition period, all transit would converge on a central corridor, jointly managed. This phased approach aims to build confidence and reduce the risk of collisions or incidents, the source said, speaking on condition of anonymity because the negotiations are private.

"The idea is to move from a situation of uncertainty to one of clear rules," the source added. "Both sides recognize that a breakdown in Hormuz is unacceptable."

A key sticking point has been the fee structure. Under the emerging proposal, tolls would be calculated based on services provided—such as insurance, bunkering, and environmental protection—rather than the value of the cargo. This is a significant departure from earlier ideas that linked fees to crude prices. Officials in Tehran have stressed that revenue would fund safety and security measures, though some Western analysts remain skeptical.

"We're watching these talks closely," said a Gulf-based shipping consultant. "Any fee regime must be transparent and non-discriminatory, or it will create new frictions."

Regional backing appears to be coalescing. Several Gulf states, which rely heavily on the strait for their exports, have signaled support for a joint regional mechanism, with voluntary contributions to a management and security fund. This aligns with a broader push by the Gulf Cooperation Council to take a more active role in maritime security, according to people familiar with the matter.

However, the US has expressed caution. A State Department spokesperson said Washington supports efforts to ensure freedom of navigation but stressed that any agreement must be enforceable and not infringe on international law. "We're not going to comment on the specifics of ongoing negotiations," the spokesperson said.

The talks come after a series of incidents last year, including the seizure of several tankers, which prompted some shipping companies to re-route via the Bab el-Mandeb strait, adding weeks to voyages and increasing costs. Reopening Hormuz with a reliable framework would be a welcome relief for insurers, who have jacked up war-risk premiums.

Efforts to reach Iranian and Omani officials for further comment were unsuccessful. Reuters and other outlets have reported on the ongoing discussions, with details still evolving.

Correction: An earlier version of this article suggested that tolls might be based on cargo value. The latest proposal specifies service-based fees.