• US intelligence warns that Iran retains the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz at will, posing a persistent risk to global energy flows.
  • Iran's leverage stems from its arsenal of missiles, drones, fast boats, and mining capabilities, which it demonstrated during recent conflicts.
  • Even short disruptions could trigger significant oil price volatility, with markets already pricing in heightened risk premiums.

A Renewed Threat to Global Energy

US intelligence assessments have concluded that Iran can potentially shut down the Strait of Hormuz again, after demonstrating that capability during the ongoing regional conflict. According to officials familiar with the matter, Tehran retains a formidable array of tools—including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast attack boats, and naval mines—that could disrupt the vital waterway through which about 20% of the world's oil passes.

Despite expectations of a reopening agreement, intelligence suggests Iran has gained significant leverage over the strategic chokepoint and could use regional energy infrastructure as a pressure tool. "The capability is there, and the willingness to use it has been proven," one US official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. Attempts to reach Iranian representatives for comment were unsuccessful.

The assessment comes as global energy markets remain on edge. Oil prices have already incorporated a risk premium, with benchmark Brent crude trading near $85 per barrel amid fears of supply disruptions. Analysts warn that even a temporary closure could send prices spiking, affecting everything from gasoline costs to inflation trajectories worldwide.

Strategic Leverage

Iran's ability to threaten Hormuz is not new, but officials say the country has refined its tactics. During the latest flare-up, Tehran employed drones and fast boats to harass commercial shipping, while long-range missiles and mines remained on standby. US Navy forces have bolstered their presence in the region, but intelligence indicates Iran could still mount an effective blockade, if only for a short period.

"What we're seeing is a shift from theoretical to demonstrated capability," said a defense analyst familiar with the intelligence. "Iran has been practicing these scenarios for years. Now they've shown they can execute them." The Strait's narrow width—just 33 kilometers at its narrowest point—makes it particularly vulnerable to asymmetric tactics.

Market and Policy Implications

The renewed threat is forcing energy traders and policymakers to reassess risk. Shipping insurance premiums for Gulf voyages are climbing, and some charterers are avoiding the region altogether. Major oil importers in Asia, including Japan and South Korea, are reviewing contingency plans, including drawing from strategic reserves.

"We are in a period of heightened uncertainty," said a London-based oil trader. "Every headline out of the Gulf is moving the market." The US has engaged in quiet diplomacy with Gulf allies to ensure alternative routes and production capacity can be tapped quickly. However, with Iran's room to maneuver, the risk of a sudden closure remains high.

Conclusion

As long as Tehran maintains its military capabilities and political will, the Strait of Hormuz will remain a flashpoint. The US intelligence warning underscores that the threat is not fading, and global markets must adapt to a new normal where access to the world's most important oil chokepoint can no longer be taken for granted.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the percentage of global oil passing through the Strait. The correct figure is 20%.