• Tehran pushes back on claims of an imminent reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, saying any Iran-Oman talks are separate from U.S. policy.
  • Iranian officials warn the strait could remain closed if U.S. "violations" persist, signaling continued tension.
  • Market watchers see limited near-term relief for oil flows, with mediation via Oman as a key channel.

Iranian state media on Thursday pushed back on President Trump's assertion that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, saying any agreement with Oman is not linked to an immediate reopening. The semiofficial IRIB news agency warned the strait would stay closed if the U.S. continues what Tehran calls violations, while an Iranian lawmaker told local outlets that Hormuz will "not return to its pre-war status," stressing that talks with Oman are bilateral and unrelated to Washington.

The statements come after a week of mixed signals about a possible temporary reopening of the crucial waterway, through which about 20% of global oil passes. On Tuesday, Iranian officials hinted at a potential partial reopening mediated by Oman, but the latest comments suggest Tehran is conditioning any relief on its own terms, dampening hopes for a swift resolution.

Bilateral Channel, Not a U.S. Deal

The Iranian pushback emphasizes that any negotiations with Oman are a separate track from U.S.-Iran relations. According to people familiar with the matter, Oman has been shuttling between Tehran and Washington, but Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that "no agreement with the United States is on the table."

The distinction matters for traders and shipping lines seeking clarity. "The market is trying to price in a potential reopening, but the political reality is that Tehran is not going to hand Trump a win without significant concessions," said a Gulf-based energy analyst, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard-affiliated media has also been pushing back on Western narratives, framing any reopening as a sovereign decision rather than a response to U.S. pressure. This aligns with domestic messaging that portrays the strait as a lever of Iranian power, not a bargaining chip to be traded lightly.

Market Jitters Persist

Despite the mixed signals, oil prices have remained volatile, with Brent crude edging down 0.8% to $89.40 a barrel in early trading, as traders weigh the possibility of a temporary reopening against the risk of prolonged closure. Shipping insurance premiums in the region have spiked, and some carriers are already rerouting via longer, costlier paths.

"Even if Hormuz reopens, it won't be business as usual," said a senior shipping executive in Dubai. "The cost of insurance and the risk of re-closure will keep a premium on all Gulf shipments."

Analysts at major banks have noted that a sustained reopening could help cool crude prices, but they caution that policy friction between Tehran and Washington remains a structural barrier. "The history of these episodes shows that openings are often temporary and conditional," said a London-based commodities strategist. "We would need to see consistent signals and enforcement guarantees for the market to fully relax."

Uncertain Path Forward

Iran's lawmakers have stressed that any agreement with Oman is separate from U.S. policy, and that the strait's status will be determined by Tehran's security and economic interests. This leaves little room for a quick deal, even as regional mediators push for a practical solution.

In the short term, shipping lines are likely to continue navigating cautiously, with no guaranteed reopening until the terms of an Oman-mediated arrangement are clarified. The future outlook remains uncertain: a temporary reopening could unlock some traffic if bilateral talks succeed, but structural tensions suggest a bumpy road ahead.

Anyone watching the situation should keep an eye on any official statements from Oman or Iran specifying access arrangements, as well as any shifts in U.S. sanction posture. Oil market reactions and shipping updates will also provide real-time indicators of how the situation is evolving.

— With assistance from regional news desk

Correction: An earlier version of this article mischaracterized the IRIB quote. The report now reflects the exact wording from state media.