• Iran's Revolutionary Guards escalate attacks with new missiles, targeting multiple Middle Eastern nations including Israel and Gulf states.
  • Civilian infrastructure like Dubai Airport and Saudi refineries hit, signaling heightened risks to oil markets and global energy supplies.
  • US-Israeli strikes degrade Iranian military capabilities, with first US casualties reported and ongoing retaliatory actions from Hezbollah.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards launched another wave of missile and drone attacks on March 1-2, 2026, targeting Israel, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Jordan, using new missiles amid ongoing US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites. The latest barrages, involving 300-500 missiles and 270-500 drones since operations began on February 28, have impacted key civilian sites, including Dubai Airport, Zayed Port, and a Saudi oil refinery, according to people familiar with the matter. In Beit Shemesh, Israel, nine were killed, while strikes near hospitals and stadiums in Tehran fuel a growing humanitarian crisis.

Efforts to coordinate defenses have hit a snag as regional forces scramble to intercept incoming threats. Saudi, UK, and UAE forces downed drones over cities, with residents reporting smoke and sirens displacing populations. "We're seeing a direct challenge to stability in the Gulf, with trade hubs like Dubai facing short-term shutdowns," said an anonymous analyst, noting that the UAE was struck by 332 drones, 28 ballistic missiles, and 2 cruise missiles. The closure of a Saudi refinery has already amplified volatility in oil prices, with Brent crude spiking over 5% in early trading as markets brace for further supply disruptions.

Without a deal to de-escalate, the conflict risks spiraling into a month-long engagement, per sources close to the Trump administration. US-Israeli "Operation Roaring Lion/Genesis" has hit 500+ targets, including Tehran leadership sites, IRGC bases, and the Natanz nuclear facility, killing thousands of IRGC personnel and Supreme Leader Khamenei. In response, Iran targeted US bases in Erbil and Jordan, injuring one American and marking the first US casualties—three dead and five critically injured. Hezbollah fired rockets at Israel, claiming retaliation, while pro-Iran drones hit a US base in Baghdad, according to regional reports.

Iran is struggling with coordination due to degraded IRGC capabilities, raising prospects for negotiations, experts suggest. The IDF struck Iranian missile bases storing Ghadr missiles, previously used in 2024 attacks, and US forces destroyed IRGC headquarters. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful, but public defiance was shown via state media broadcasts. Historical context points to escalation from June 2025 IDF strikes on Qom, echoing past proxy wars, but current developments focus on real-time barrages and intercepts.

Short-term, continued strikes on command centers are likely, with Iran's barrages appearing uncoordinated. Long-term, regime instability looms from cyberattacks urging uprisings and Khamenei's loss. Parallel Gulf-wide intercepts mirror 2024 Houthi disruptions, but the use of new missiles and direct hits on civilian infrastructure marks a significant escalation. As smoke clears over cities, the focus shifts to whether remaining leaders will engage in talks, with Trump suggesting pre-emptive actions could pave the way for diplomacy.