• Iranian officials privately see little prospect of a breakthrough before the Nov. 3 midterms, with nuclear concessions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz the main sticking points.
  • Indirect talks in New York made limited progress; President Trump reportedly rejected Iran’s seven-day roadmap, helping push Brent crude above $106 per barrel.
  • Without a deal, oil flows through the world’s most critical chokepoint could remain disrupted, keeping a geopolitical risk premium embedded in energy prices.

Efforts to end hostilities between the U.S. and Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have hit a snag, with Iranian officials now privately pessimistic about reaching an agreement before the November 3 midterm elections, according to people familiar with the matter.

The indirect negotiations, mediated primarily by Qatar, have yet to produce a ceasefire, a reopening of the strait, or constraints on Iran’s nuclear program. A reported two-hour exchange of messages yielded little visible progress, and a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would not budge on core nuclear rights—including uranium enrichment or sending highly enriched uranium abroad—even if Washington accepted its proposal on Hormuz.

A Seven-Day Proposal Rejected

Iran’s public offer would reopen the strait within roughly seven days and restart nuclear talks, but only if the United States ends its naval blockade of Iranian ports, eases or waives sanctions on Iranian oil sales, releases frozen Iranian assets, and observes a broader ceasefire that includes Lebanon.

President Trump reportedly rejected that seven-day framework. Following the rejection, Brent crude rose above $106 per barrel, with Trading Economics reporting the international benchmark at $107.64 on September 28.

The stalemate has become a dispute over sequencing and leverage. Iran wants Washington to provide sanctions relief and end the blockade before it reopens Hormuz; the United States seeks credible progress on maritime access and Iran’s nuclear program before giving up key pressure points.

“Institutional investors are really focused on regulatory stability, and this is a geopolitical risk that feeds directly into energy costs,” one market strategist said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “The oil market is pricing in a longer disruption than previously hoped.”

Political Pressure Mounts

The closure of Hormuz—a chokepoint for a significant share of global oil shipments—has become a direct oil-price risk. Sustained geopolitical premiums are feeding into gasoline, diesel, aviation-fuel, freight, and household energy costs, a politically sensitive dynamic ahead of the U.S. midterms.

Oil-importing economies face greater inflation and weaker consumer purchasing power. Exporters reliant on Gulf routes are contending with disrupted volumes, delayed shipments, higher insurance costs, and uncertain pricing. For Iran, the stakes include access to export revenue, imported goods, and frozen foreign assets.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled a willingness to discuss nuclear limits and outside verification, but other officials simultaneously insist there will be no concession on enrichment or removal of enriched uranium. That gap helps explain why mediator-led contact has continued without producing a near-term breakthrough.

The current crisis follows major U.S.-Israeli strikes that reportedly began on February 28, after which the Hormuz closure and a U.S. naval blockade became focal points of the conflict. The principal sticking points remain nuclear policy, maritime access, the scope of a regional ceasefire, and U.S. domestic politics.

A durable settlement would likely require separate but linked arrangements covering guaranteed maritime passage through Hormuz, sanctions and access to Iranian assets, a nuclear verification and enrichment framework, and a broader regional de-escalation mechanism. For now, the probability of a quick pre-midterm agreement appears low, and oil is likely to remain volatile and sensitive to any statement about negotiations, military operations, or tanker movements.

Requests for comment from the White House and Iran’s mission to the United Nations were not immediately returned.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the reported U.S. rejection of Iran’s seven-day roadmap. It followed the New York talks, not preceded them.