• Iran’s president signals willingness to halt hostilities if Israel reciprocates, following a 12-day conflict.
  • U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposes sequential 12-hour truces, but early reports allege violations by both sides.
  • Markets remain volatile as oil prices react to Middle East tensions, with global investors eyeing stability.

A Fragile Truce Takes Shape

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stated Tehran would respect a ceasefire with Israel—but only if Jerusalem ceases attacks first. The declaration follows a U.S.-mediated proposal for sequential 12-hour pauses in hostilities, aimed at formally ending what President Donald Trump dubbed "THE 12 DAY WAR."

Initial optimism was tempered by reports of rocket fire and sirens in Israel shortly after the truce was to take effect, though neither side has officially abandoned the agreement. "We will observe the ceasefire if Israel does the same," Raisi said in a televised address, stopping short of confirming Iran’s formal adherence to the U.S. framework.

The Mechanics of the Deal

The proposed ceasefire hinges on a staggered approach: Iran would halt attacks for 12 hours, followed by an Israeli pause of equal length. If maintained, the arrangement could de-escalate the most direct military confrontation between the two nations in decades. But Israeli officials warned of "immediate and disproportionate" retaliation for any violations, reflecting deep mutual distrust.

Behind the scenes, U.S. diplomats worked to solidify the terms after American airstrikes targeted Iranian nuclear facilities earlier in the conflict. Iran’s largely intercepted missile strike on Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar—a symbolic retaliation—preceded the truce talks.

Markets on Edge

Global oil prices whipsawed as traders weighed the ceasefire’s fragility. Iran’s crude exports and Israel’s defense sector have faced disruptions, with broader implications for regional supply chains. "The risk premium won’t vanish overnight," said one European energy analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity. "This is a pause, not a resolution."

Diplomatic channels, including the IAEA, urged sustained dialogue, particularly on Iran’s nuclear program. Yet with both sides publicly conditioning compliance on the other’s actions, the truce remains precarious—a fact underscored by sporadic explosions reported near the Israel-Gaza border within hours of the announcement.