• Iran's Revolutionary Guards assert no commercial vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, calling U.S. reports 'baseless lies.'
  • The denial escalates a war of words over control of the critical oil chokepoint, with Tehran signaling it may restrict transit.
  • Markets are on edge as the standoff threatens to disrupt global oil flows and shipping.

Tensions Flare Over Hormuz Access

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Thursday pushed back against U.S. assertions that commercial traffic was moving through the Strait of Hormuz, claiming instead that no tankers or merchant vessels have passed in the past few hours. In a statement carried by Tasnim News, the IRGC labeled the American claims as "baseless and complete lies," according to people familiar with the matter.

The denial comes amid heightened rhetoric from Tehran, which has repeatedly warned that the strait—a conduit for about 20% of the world's oil—could be closed to hostile forces. The U.S. military, meanwhile, has maintained that it is monitoring the waterway and that international shipping continues under naval escort. Attempts to reach the U.S. Central Command for comment on Iran's latest statement were not immediately successful.

Commercial Shipping in Limbo

The IRGC's assertion, if accurate, would mark a sharp escalation, effectively confirming a de facto blockade. However, industry sources suggest that traffic had been flowing, albeit with significant delays and higher insurance costs. "Without clarity, shippers are facing tough choices—either pay a premium to cross or reroute around Africa," said a Gulf-based shipping broker, speaking on condition of anonymity. Tanker rates have already spiked, and oil prices edged higher in early trading on Friday, adding about $2 a barrel on fears of supply disruptions.

Strategic Stakes

Iran's leadership views control of Hormuz as a key lever in broader disputes with the U.S. over sanctions and regional influence. The IRGC's latest statement appears designed to reinforce its narrative of strength and deterrence, both domestically and internationally. "They're making a point that they can disrupt traffic whenever they choose," said a former Iranian diplomat familiar with internal thinking. "It's a warning shot."

Market Implications

For investors, the key question is whether this is brinkmanship or a prelude to sustained restrictions. Past episodes, such as in 2019 and 2023, saw threats that eventually gave way to resumed transit, but the pattern is far from predictable. "The risk of miscalculation is real," noted a senior oil analyst at a London-based consultancy. "Any actual closure could send Brent above $100 fast."

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeframe of the IRGC's denial. It has been updated to reflect that the Guards referred to the past few hours, not the past days.