• Iran is signaling a move toward joint or limited supervision of the Strait of Hormuz with Oman, while asserting ongoing influence over the strait’s navigation rules. This represents a shift from unilateral Iranian control toward a more collaborative framework, though Tehran’s core objective appears to consolidate leverage over transit rules.
  • Tehran has publicly floated allowing ships deemed “non-hostile” to transit with prior approval, suggesting a potential easing of passage for certain vessels, while insisting on its supervisory role even in peacetime, which has drawn mixed reactions from the United States and other stakeholders.
  • The U.S. and other powers have voiced concerns about legality and freedom of navigation, and discussions about escorting or guaranteeing safe passage for commercial shipping through Hormuz are continuing, with no final agreement in place as of the latest reports.

Iran could consider ships being able to sail through Oman’s side of the Strait of Hormuz without interference or attack as part of a deal with the U.S., according to a source close to Tehran. The source added that Iran will maintain control over its waters in the strait and Oman will decide about its own side of the waterway, signaling a potential shift toward joint governance of this critical maritime chokepoint.

Efforts to restructure the strait’s governance have hit a snag, with Tehran advocating for a supervisory arrangement that preserves its influence over traffic rules. Without a deal, tensions could escalate, potentially disrupting global energy flows. The proposal aims to replace unilateral control with a more collaborative framework, part of a broader strategy to bolster geopolitical leverage, according to people familiar with the matter.

Oil markets reacted to the reported negotiations, with Brent crude showing slight volatility as traders weighed the implications for supply security. The strait handles about 21 million barrels of oil per day, making any changes to transit rules a focal point for global energy prices. Stakeholders, including shipowners and insurers, are monitoring developments closely, as increased compliance burdens or commercial uncertainty could impact non-aligned states.

Discussions are ongoing, with Oman traditionally the other side of the Hormuz border in governance terms. Any agreement would define shared responsibilities and traffic rules affecting its territorial waters and continental shelf, based on the 1974 Iran-Oman boundary arrangements. “We’re in a constant dialogue with regional partners to ensure stability,” said an anonymous official involved in the talks, though attempts to reach Iranian and Omani representatives for direct comment were unsuccessful.

Historical patterns show Iran using the strait as leverage in broader regional and international talks, with past instances including threats to close it as a bargaining chip. This makes durable governance arrangements inherently sensitive. In the short term, expect continued diplomatic maneuvering, with no binding agreement guaranteed. Longer term, Hormuz could move toward a mixed model combining coastal sovereign rights with multilateral guarantees of transit, though domestic political dynamics on both sides might complicate implementation.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the daily oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz; it has been updated to reflect the correct figure of 21 million barrels.