• US and Israel are preparing for a potential military confrontation with Iran, with officials assessing that conflict could begin within days.
  • The Trump administration has significantly reinforced its military presence in the Middle East, deploying two aircraft carrier strike groups and over 50 fighter jets in the past 24 hours.
  • Despite ongoing nuclear talks in Geneva, significant disagreements persist, with Iran refusing to accept a complete ban on uranium enrichment or restrictions on its ballistic missile program.

Military Buildup and Readiness

The US and Israel are on high alert as tensions with Iran escalate, with military readiness raised and a Trump administration adviser telling sources there is a 90 percent likelihood of US military action occurring in the next few weeks. The US has deployed two aircraft carrier strike groups, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford, and more than 50 fighter jets, such as F-35, F-22, and F-16 aircraft, over the past 24 hours, bringing its presence in the Middle East to levels comparable to the Iraq War. Israel has postponed its security cabinet meeting from Thursday to Sunday, signaling heightened alert levels across its security establishment.

Nuclear Negotiations and Impasse

Efforts to resolve the nuclear standoff have hit a snag, with a second round of indirect talks in Geneva on February 18, 2026, showing limited progress. Vice President JD Vance acknowledged some progress on guiding principles but made clear that Iran has not accepted American demands that it never obtain nuclear weapons. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that progress does not indicate an imminent deal, and Iran's missile capabilities remain a red line. Without a breakthrough, the diplomatic path appears increasingly narrow, with Israeli officials predicting the negotiations are likely doomed and assessing that Trump may be preparing the ground for a military strike while appearing to exhaust diplomatic options first.

Likelihood of Military Action

If military conflict occurs, sources indicate it would be a joint US-Israeli operation characterized as massive and existential for the Iranian regime, potentially an intensive, multi-week campaign larger than the 12-day Israeli bombing campaign in June 2025. Iranian missile strikes in that campaign killed 32 people and wounded over 3,000 in Israel, highlighting the potential for significant casualties. Iran has responded defiantly by temporarily shutting down parts of the Strait of Hormuz while conducting live fire military exercises, including missile launches, signaling resistance to US threats. Attempts to reach Iranian officials for comment were unsuccessful.

Regional Tensions and International Response

Regional tensions are mounting, with Gulf countries and Israel urging Trump not to strike Iran due to concerns about igniting a broader conflict. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk urged Polish citizens to leave Iran immediately, warning that active conflict risk is very, very real and could erupt within a few, a dozen or several dozen hours, with evacuation potentially becoming impossible soon. This underscores the urgency of the situation as the world watches for any signs of de-escalation or further provocation.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the date of the Geneva talks; it was February 18, 2026.