• Iran's foreign minister says negotiations on a final nuclear deal will start immediately after a memorandum of understanding (MoU) is signed with the US, with a 60-day timeline to reach a comprehensive agreement covering nuclear issues and sanctions relief.
  • The staged process aims to formalize the MoU first, then engage in intensive talks to resolve key sticking points within two months, potentially extending if needed.
  • Market observers see potential for reduced geopolitical risk and eased oil sanctions if a credible deal emerges, though compliance and verification remain critical hurdles.

Diplomatic Breakthrough or Another False Dawn?

Iran's foreign minister announced on Thursday that long-awaited negotiations between Tehran and Washington will formally commence on the same day a memorandum of understanding is signed, kicking off a 60-day sprint to finalize a comprehensive nuclear deal. The timeline, disclosed in an interview with state media, marks the most concrete signal yet that both sides are moving toward a structured diplomatic process after months of indirect talks in intermediary hubs like Rome, Muscat, and Geneva.

"After the first phase, negotiations will continue for 60 days for a final agreement which will include the nuclear issue and lifting of sanctions," the minister said, according to people familiar with the matter. The two-phase approach—first an MoU, then a tight negotiating window—mirrors previous frameworks but faces a more complex geopolitical landscape than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

The 60-Day Clock

Under the plan, once the MoU is signed, negotiators will have 60 days to hammer out a final deal addressing uranium enrichment levels, inspection regimes, and the scope of sanctions relief. The timeline could be extended if progress stalls, but the minister emphasized that the window is designed to build momentum. "Without a deal, the region would face renewed instability," one European diplomat involved in the talks said, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions.

Iran has long insisted on verifiable sanctions relief as a precondition for any nuclear rollback, while the US demands strict compliance monitoring and limits on enrichment. The 60-day framework suggests both sides are willing to compress years of technical negotiations into a politically driven deadline—a high-risk strategy that could either yield a breakthrough or collapse under its own ambition.

Economic Implications

If a credible agreement emerges, the immediate macro effects could include a reduction in geopolitical risk premiums, potentially easing restrictions on Iranian oil exports and international banking channels. Oil markets, already volatile due to regional tensions, may see a price dampening effect from increased supply expectations. "The 60-day timeline is ambitious, but markets are already pricing in a 30% chance of a deal," a senior energy analyst at a London-based consultancy said. Iran's economy, battered by sanctions, stands to gain from renewed access to global trade and investment.

However, analysts caution that past nuclear talks have repeatedly hit snags over verification and compliance. "The devil is in the details," said a former US nuclear negotiator who asked not to be named. "A 60-day clock doesn't mean a deal is imminent—it means both sides are serious, but serious about testing each other's bottom lines."

Regional and Domestic Reactions

Israel has voiced strong opposition to any deal that leaves Iran with significant enrichment capabilities, while Gulf states watch warily. In Tehran, public reaction is mixed: optimism over potential sanctions relief tempered by skepticism after years of broken promises and economic hardship. The US administration faces scrutiny from lawmakers demanding ironclad non-proliferation commitments.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timeline for the start of negotiations. The talks begin after the MoU is signed, not concurrently.