• Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, warns of visible and hidden enemy moves preparing for a new round of war, including plans to occupy Iranian islands.
  • Military incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and U.S. claims of intercepting Iranian attacks on ships underscore elevated naval tensions.
  • Regional instability raises risk premiums for oil and shipping, with potential for global market volatility.

Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, issued a stark warning on Thursday, stating that intelligence indicates the enemy is planning a new round of war, including potential ground or amphibious actions to occupy Iranian islands. Speaking at a public event, Ghalibaf said Iranian forces remain on high alert and will respond decisively to any aggression, threatening retaliatory strikes on vital infrastructure if the enemy proceeds.

The comments come against a backdrop of heightened naval tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows. Reports in early to mid-May describe military incidents in the strait, with U.S. officials claiming to have intercepted Iranian attacks on ships. These events have underscored the fragility of security in the region, where Iran has framed control of strategic waterways as central to its deterrence strategy.

Ghalibaf’s rhetoric reflects a dual approach: domestic political signaling and reinforcing deterrence posture. While diplomatic tracks continue—including reported negotiations—senior officials emphasize military readiness. The warnings also have implications for neighboring Gulf countries and U.S. regional deployments, as Iranian statements frequently cite U.S. forces and regional partners.

For global markets, the rising risk premium on oil and shipping is a key concern. The Strait of Hormuz handles about a fifth of the world’s oil supply, and any escalation could trigger price volatility and higher insurance costs. Investors are already eyeing safe-haven assets, though sharp disruptions are not yet priced in.

Analysts caution that miscalculation at sea or in disputed islands remains the principal route from rhetoric to wider conflict. Short-term, episodic volatility in energy markets is likely if incidents persist, but sustained escalation would have far larger consequences. Iran has previously used such warnings to pressure counterparts in negotiations, but current tensions echo past cycles that briefly spiked oil prices and military deployments.

Efforts to reach Iranian officials for additional comment were unsuccessful. The situation remains fluid, with diplomatic and military signals continuing in parallel.