• Israel's Operation Rising Lion marks the largest attack on Iran since the Iran-Iraq War, targeting nuclear facilities and military leadership.
  • Former President Trump confirms U.S. tacit knowledge of the operation, linking it to a stalled nuclear deal deadline.
  • Markets face volatility as Iran retaliates with drone strikes, raising fears of prolonged regional instability.

Escalation in the Middle East

Israel launched a large-scale military operation against Iran early on June 13, 2025, striking nuclear facilities, military officials, and scientists in what analysts describe as an unprecedented escalation. The attack, codenamed Operation Rising Lion, follows Iran’s non-compliance with nuclear obligations and accelerated uranium enrichment efforts. Former U.S. President Donald Trump told The Wall Street Journal that the U.S. was aware of Israel’s plans but did not receive a formal warning, suggesting tacit approval.

"We know what’s going on," Trump said, framing the strike as a response to Iran missing a 60-day deadline for nuclear negotiations. "On the 61st day, they attacked. Today is 61." He called the operation "very successful" and suggested it could stabilize markets by curbing Iran’s nuclear ambitions—though analysts warn of near-term volatility.

Market and Diplomatic Fallout

Iran retaliated with over 100 drones targeting Israel, testing air defenses and fueling fears of a prolonged conflict. Oil prices edged higher in early trading as traders weighed risks to Middle Eastern supply chains. Trump’s assertion that the strike could "boost markets" contrasts with broader concerns over destabilization, particularly if Iran’s leadership escalates further.

The attack also complicates diplomatic efforts, as the U.S. and allies grapple with balancing support for Israel against calls for de-escalation. "This isn’t just a military strike—it’s a direct challenge to the international order," said one European diplomat, speaking anonymously due to the sensitivity of ongoing talks.

What Comes Next

With Iran vowing retaliation and Israel on high alert, the immediate focus is on containing further escalation. The strikes have already inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, but long-term consequences—including regional alliances and energy markets—remain uncertain. As one Tel Aviv-based strategist noted, "The calculus here isn’t just about military gains. It’s about reshaping the entire security paradigm in the Middle East."