• J.P. Morgan (JPM)'s head of precious metals trading reportedly sees dwindling odds of new U.S. tariffs on silver and platinum-group metals, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • The assessment aligns with the administration's preference for negotiated critical-mineral supply agreements over immediate import restrictions.
  • A reduced tariff-risk premium could ease physical-market dislocations and lower costs for industrial users, though the government retains authority to impose duties.

Tariff Threat Fades

Expectations of U.S. tariffs on silver and platinum-group metals (PGMs) are diminishing, according to the head of precious metals trading at J.P. Morgan, as the Trump administration continues to favor negotiated supply agreements over immediate import restrictions. The executive's view, relayed by people familiar with the matter, reflects a growing consensus that the administration will hold off on new Section 232 duties for these metals.

The shift follows the January 14, 2026 proclamation in which President Trump opted to negotiate critical-mineral supply agreements rather than impose broad new tariffs. That order explicitly left open future remedies, including minimum import prices, and required a negotiating-status update within 180 days. That period was not an automatic tariff trigger.

J.P. Morgan's metals strategist Gregory Shearer noted in February that the administration's initial decision not to tariff silver helped unwind the trade of moving metal into New York ahead of possible duties. He cautioned that renewed tariff threats could restart those flows and tighten physical liquidity outside the United States. Shearer heads metals strategy and research, and is not the trading executive cited in the headline.

Market Implications

For silver and PGM traders, the fading tariff threat reduces the incentive to stockpile metal in the U.S. ahead of potential duties. That could lead to smaller regional price dislocations and less pressure on non-U.S. liquidity. "The market is adjusting to a lower probability of tariffs, but it's not a guarantee," one trader said.

U.S. industrial buyers, particularly in automotive manufacturing, stand to benefit from avoiding an added input cost. Goldman Sachs (GS) research from September similarly judged near-term critical-mineral tariffs unlikely, arguing they would raise U.S. industrial costs without quickly expanding domestic supply.

Investors may see a reduced tariff-risk premium weigh on prices, though the global supply-demand balance and other factors like interest rates remain dominant. J.P. Morgan's August 13 silver outlook forecast approximately $63 an ounce for Q4 2026, a roughly $70 annual average for 2026 and approximately $63 for 2027, reflecting weakening physical tightness and changes in industrial demand.

Other forces are reshaping silver demand. J.P. Morgan noted weaker Chinese demand following front-loaded imports ahead of an April 1 photovoltaic export-VAT change, tighter Indian import rules, and increased use of technologies that reduce silver consumption in solar panels. The bank estimated solar-sector silver demand could fall approximately 30%, or 60 million ounces, in 2026.

Policy Context

The current situation traces back to April 15, 2025, when the White House directed a Section 232 investigation into processed critical minerals. During the ensuing uncertainty, traders moved silver toward the U.S. to avoid potential future import costs, contributing to tighter physical availability elsewhere.

From January 2026 onward, the negotiations-first approach reduced the immediate tariff threat, allowing those market distortions to unwind. However, the government retains the option to impose restrictions. The administration frames critical-mineral dependence as a national-security issue and has used tools such as supply agreements and possible price floors.

The key watchpoint is an actual government proclamation or negotiated agreement. "Less and less likely" is a market judgment, not a binding policy commitment.

Company Context

JPMorgan Chase is a global financial-services group with $5.0 trillion in balance-sheet assets as of June 30, 2026. Its latest published quarterly results are Q2 2026, with revenue of $57.3 billion, up 28% year over year, and net income of $21.2 billion, up 41%. Markets revenue rose 35% to $12.1 billion, although commodities revenue declined within Fixed Income Markets. Q3 results are scheduled for October 13.

On June 25, Doug Petno and Troy Rohrbaugh became co-presidents, with Petno assuming sole leadership of the Commercial & Investment Bank and Rohrbaugh taking over Consumer & Community Banking. Jamie Dimon remains chairman and CEO.

Related developments include the February 2026 U.S. critical-minerals ministerial, which highlighted more than $30 billion in support for supply-chain projects, and a July 30 White House announcement delegating Defense Production Act authority for recoverable critical minerals. Globally, China's photovoltaic tax changes and India's silver-import restrictions show that non-U.S. policies can materially change demand even if U.S. tariff risk subsides.

A spokesperson for J.P. Morgan declined to comment. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated Gregory Shearer's title. He is a metals strategist, not the head of precious metals trading.