• J.P. Morgan increases its Tesla price target to $150 from $115, maintaining a significantly bearish stance compared to current trading levels.
  • The adjustment comes despite Tesla shares falling roughly 17% year-to-date amid weaker sales and ongoing CEO controversies.
  • The firm's persistent skepticism reflects concerns that 2025 may mark the first year Tesla fails to register year-over-year volume growth.

J.P. Morgan has raised its price target for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) to $150.00 from $115.00, according to a research note circulated to clients on Thursday. While representing a modest uptick, the new target remains substantially below Tesla's current trading price of approximately $329 and the median Wall Street target of $345.28.

The adjustment follows ongoing skepticism by J.P. Morgan analysts about Tesla's near-term growth trajectory, reflecting persistent concerns over softening vehicle deliveries and the company's ability to sustain its historical growth rates. People familiar with the matter noted that the revision incorporates slightly improved near-term estimates but maintains a cautious long-term view.

Tesla's shares have declined from $390.10 at the start of 2025 to recent levels around $329, a drop of roughly 17% year-to-date. This performance is attributed to weaker sales over two consecutive quarters and ongoing controversy surrounding CEO Elon Musk's political statements, which have sparked consumer protests at some Tesla stores and affected brand sentiment.

"The price target increase is more of a technical adjustment than a change in our fundamental thesis," one analyst familiar with J.P. Morgan's thinking said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "We remain concerned about stagnating unit growth and shifting consumer sentiment."

Efforts to reach J.P. Morgan for additional comment were unsuccessful by publication time. A Tesla representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the analyst note.

The firm's conservative stance stands in contrast to more bullish analysts who point to Tesla's Q3 2025 earnings, which were still considered robust despite the challenging environment. Some maintain significantly higher price targets, with Wedbush Securities recently reiterating its $500 target based on Tesla's data and technology lead in autonomous vehicles and AI integration.

What institutional investors are really focused on is whether Tesla can reverse its delivery trajectory. Historical patterns suggest the company has consistently grown volumes year-over-year, but 2025 may mark the first time this trend breaks—a development that would represent a major shift in the Tesla investment story.

While the broader EV industry faces similar competitive and regulatory pressures, Tesla's situation is unique given its valuation premium and dependence on continued rapid growth. The company operates amid tightening government emissions regulations and growing EV mandates, but also faces specific challenges including trade tensions and regulatory scrutiny in key markets like China.

Without a sustained recovery in delivery growth, Tesla would face increasing pressure on its multiple, according to several analysts surveyed. The company's ability to execute on autonomous vehicle technology and new affordable models remains critical to its long-term story, with many viewing 2026 as a potential inflection point.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the year-to-date percentage decline in Tesla's share price. The stock has fallen roughly 17% year-to-date, not 15%.