• JPMorgan forecasts U.S. share buybacks will rise by an additional $600 billion on top of the current record $1.5 trillion pace.
  • Global buybacks have already matched last year’s total in just eight months, implying a potential $1.9 trillion for 2025—a 38% increase.
  • Despite the volume, buybacks as a percentage of market cap remain at 2.6%, well below the 5% peak seen in 2007, suggesting markets are less overheated by this metric.

A new analysis from JPMorgan Chase & Co. projects that the torrent of corporate share repurchases is set to accelerate, providing continued support for equity markets even as new listings remain sluggish. The firm’s strategists expect U.S. buybacks to surge by an additional $600 billion, building on what was already a record annual pace of $1.5 trillion.

The trend is even more pronounced on a global scale. According to the bank’s data, worldwide buyback volumes had already reached $1.37 trillion through the first eight months of the year, matching the entirety of 2024’s total. This trajectory implies a potential haul of $1.9 trillion for the full year 2025.

Despite these eye-popping aggregate numbers, the strategists note that buybacks as a percentage of total market capitalization stand at 2.6%. This is significantly lower than the 5% peak hit in 2007, just before the financial crisis, suggesting that while the cash spent is unprecedented, its market impact is less concentrated than in previous cycles.

The relentless pace of repurchases, combined with persistently low IPO activity, means the supply of listed equities is contracting for the fourth consecutive year. This shrinking supply is widely seen as a key factor buoying asset prices, creating a technical backstop against market volatility. “You have this powerful, consistent bid from corporates themselves,” said one analyst familiar with the report, who asked not to be identified because the analysis is not yet public. “It’s a fundamental driver that can’t be ignored.”

The political and regulatory backdrop for buybacks remains complex. A federal excise tax on repurchases was implemented to encourage more capital investment in operations and workforce, but so far it has done little to dampen corporate enthusiasm for returning cash to shareholders. JPMorgan’s projection suggests that strong cash flows and manageable borrowing costs continue to make buybacks an attractive option for capital allocation.

JPMorgan, which reported $15 billion in net income for its most recent quarter, is a key player in facilitating these transactions. Its analysis points to a sustained environment where returning capital takes precedence over equity issuance, a trend that shows few signs of abating in the near term.