• JPMorgan executives reiterate that U.S. consumer balance sheets and spending growth remain solid despite inflation and higher rates.
  • Checking account balances are above pre-COVID levels, with delinquency and credit losses back to normal ranges.
  • Future consumer strength hinges on labor market resilience, with JPMorgan Research forecasting 2.3% year-over-year spending growth in 2025.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM)'s top consumer banking executives, Marianne Lake and Jennifer Piepszak, have underscored in recent interviews and research updates that the U.S. consumer is holding up well, even as economic headwinds persist. Their assessment, often summarized in headlines as "JPMorgan's Lake says US consumer is still healthy," points to a foundation of financial stability that continues to support economic growth.

According to people familiar with the matter, internal data from JPMorgan shows discretionary spending rising around 2–3% year-over-year in recent months, while nondiscretionary outlays have been buoyed by lower gas prices. This aligns with JPMorgan Research estimates, which revised up second-quarter growth to 3.0% on the back of resilient demand, projecting overall consumer spending to increase about 2.3% year-over-year in 2025. "The consumer remains broadly healthy," one source noted, echoing the bank's public stance.

Household finances appear robust, with the JPMorgan Chase Institute finding checking account balances above pre-COVID levels and significant net wealth gains since 2019, though balances have come off pandemic peaks. Lower-income households are feeling more pressure, but overall, credit quality is described as "normal." CEO Jamie Dimon recently remarked that U.S. consumers are "fine," with delinquency and credit losses back to normal ranges, though he cautioned that future strength depends heavily on the labor market.

Efforts to gauge consumer sentiment have revealed a nuanced picture. Business surveys conducted by JPMorgan, such as its Business Leaders Outlook, show 74% of executives expect higher sales and 65% anticipate higher profits in 2025, supporting the bank's fee and lending environment. This optimism is tempered by inflation concerns, with tariffs pushing up goods prices in some categories, which JPMorgan expects to further lift inflation readings mid-2025. Some firms are passing on these costs, while others are absorbing margin compression, potentially weighing on capital expenditure and hiring.

Without sustained job growth, the consumer's resilience could wane, analysts warn. The labor market has cooled from post-pandemic highs but remains positive, a key factor in JPMorgan's soft-landing narrative. Consumption, which accounts for about 68% of U.S. GDP, underpins this outlook, with the bank's asset management arm highlighting opportunities in sectors aligned with shifting consumer behavior—like experiences, services, and value-oriented retailers.

In a brief statement, a JPMorgan spokesperson emphasized the importance of regulatory stability and ongoing consumer engagement, though specific comments from Lake or Piepszak were not immediately available. Attempts to reach other financial analysts for additional perspective were unsuccessful by press time.

Looking ahead, JPMorgan Research anticipates continued consumer spending growth, albeit possibly slower in real terms due to tariff-related inflation pressures. The bank expects the U.S. to avoid a recession in 2025, with consumption remaining a primary GDP support. However, risks such as renewed inflation spikes or labor-market weakening could alter this trajectory, making the coming months critical for monitoring consumer health indicators.

*Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the projected consumer spending growth rate for 2025; it is 2.3% year-over-year, not 2.5%.