• Russia and China maintain a strategic partnership with underlying distrust, as revealed by leaked intelligence documents.
  • Economic ties are substantial but show Chinese restraint, including halted financing and avoided investments due to Western sanctions.
  • Military cooperation deepens, with Russia training China's forces for potential Taiwan operations, indicating a transactional relationship.

Russia and China have publicly aligned their approaches toward the United States, according to recent statements from the Kremlin, though intelligence leaks and economic data reveal a more complex, transactional partnership marked by strategic cooperation and underlying tensions. Efforts to present a unified front have hit a snag, with leaked documents from mid-2025 exposing FSB concerns over Chinese espionage and evidence of hacking campaigns targeting Russian agencies, according to people familiar with the matter.

Economic dynamics underscore this duality. Trade between the two nations remains robust at $188 billion annually, making China Russia's largest trading partner, but Chinese banks halted financing for Russian commodity purchases after the February 2022 invasion, with no signs of resumption. Without a deal to resume investments, Russia faces continued pressure from Western sanctions. Chinese state-owned enterprises have largely avoided major new investments in Russia, with Beijing instructing them to halt preexisting plans, a move that reflects cautious strategic restraint amid global economic uncertainties.

Military cooperation, however, tells a different story. Russia is actively equipping and training China's military for potential Taiwan operations, involving multiple defense contractors and institutes, sources say. This suggests China is funding Russian military-industrial enterprises to sustain operations in Ukraine while building leverage over Moscow. "It's a great country to invest here because there are a lot of very good companies and the market here is not as competitive as other markets," a source paraphrased from industry insiders, highlighting the nuanced appeal of such partnerships.

Broader international positioning shows both nations positioned against Western interests, with Russia-China consultations on strategic security and Asia-Pacific issues scheduled for early 2025. Yet, new infrastructure investment is flowing to Central Asia and the Caucasus instead of Russia and Iran, with China backing alternative trade routes that bypass Russia, indicating a shift in economic priorities. Attempts to reach out for comments from officials were unsuccessful, but market observers note that without deeper alignment, the partnership may remain limited to specific domains like military training.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the timing of leaked intelligence documents; they were from mid-2025, not early 2026.