• Lebanese military adjusts positions in response to Israeli ground advances and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, breaching the November 2024 cessation-of-hostilities agreement.
  • Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut, Bekaa Valley, and southern Lebanon on March 2-3, 2026, killing at least 31 and wounding 149, while seizing additional positions along the border.
  • Hezbollah retaliated with rockets and drones toward Israel—the first since November 2024—prompting Lebanon to ban non-state military activities and order arrests, as the IDF vows to continue until threats are eliminated.

Escalation Disrupts Fragile Truce

Lebanon's military has redeployed at some border positions, a move that responds directly to recent Israeli ground incursions and airstrikes in southern Lebanon, according to people familiar with the matter. This escalation marks a significant breach of the US-France-brokered November 26, 2024, arrangement, which had aligned with UN Resolution 1701 to require IDF withdrawal south of the Blue Line and Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) deployment south of the Litani River. Israeli forces advanced ground operations along the border, seizing additional positions and conducting airstrikes that overwhelmed Beirut hospitals and shelters, displacing residents from Hezbollah-linked southern suburbs and closing schools.

"Efforts to implement the ceasefire have hit a snag," said one regional analyst, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation. Without a deal to halt hostilities, the risk of broader conflict looms, tied to recent US-Israel "Operation Roaring Lion" airstrikes on Iran, with Hezbollah aiding Iran in the fallout. The IDF cited preventing Hezbollah rebuilds as its rationale, maintaining five positions and two buffer zones south of the Litani River, actions that Lebanese officials say hinder progress on disarmament north of the river.

Political and Humanitarian Fallout

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam condemned the projectile launches as irresponsible, urging the LAF to implement disarmament north of Litani and extend state authority. However, Israeli actions have created internal pressure amid Hezbollah defiance, with Lebanon planning 4-8 months for phase two disarmament—a timeline opposed by Hezbollah until Israeli withdrawal. UNIFIL reported IDF fire near peacekeepers and herbicide use, adding to the societal impact that included aid distribution of bedding and clothes for displaced families.

In a brief statement, an IDF spokesperson emphasized, "We will continue operations until Hezbollah threats are eliminated," reflecting a stance that experts note risks unfinished business from prior conflicts. Hezbollah's retaliation with rockets and drones, the first since November 2024, prompted Lebanon to ban non-state military activities and order arrests, but the group's influence south of Litani remains a flashpoint. The uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire's survival has markets on edge, with the IDF considering wider offensives if tensions persist.

Correction: An earlier version misstated the number of wounded in the airstrikes; it is 149, not 150.