• Marvell CEO Matt Murphy said implied data center revenue could top $30 billion by 2028, according to a CNBC interview.
  • The figure exceeds Marvell’s formal fiscal 2028 total revenue target of approximately $20 billion, which was raised at its October 6 investor day.
  • The company also projected fiscal 2031 revenue of $70–$90 billion, far above analyst consensus of $46.85 billion.

A Bullish Signal with Caveats

Marvell Technology (MRVL) CEO Matt Murphy told CNBC on Wednesday that implied data center revenue could exceed $30 billion by 2028, a projection that outstrips the company’s own formal guidance and underscores the surging demand for AI infrastructure. The remarks, made during an interview about performance and AI connectivity demand, sent a fresh wave of optimism through the semiconductor sector—though the precise assumptions behind the figure could not be immediately verified.

At its October 6 investor day, Marvell raised its fiscal 2028 total revenue target to about $20 billion from $18 billion, beating the $18.2 billion analyst consensus compiled by LSEG (LSEG.L). Fiscal 2028 runs roughly from February 2027 to January 2028, making the unqualified “2028” in the CNBC headline an important distinction. Murphy’s $30 billion data center figure appears to be a more granular, potentially calendar-year measure, but the company has not clarified how it was derived.

Data center now accounts for approximately 79% of Marvell’s revenue, which totaled $2.739 billion in the fiscal second quarter ended August 1, up 37% year-over-year. That segment grew 46% year-over-year. The company supplies custom chips, networking, and optical connectivity for cloud and enterprise customers, positioning it at the center of the AI buildout.

Stretching Targets and Market Reaction

Marvell’s longer-term ambitions are even more aggressive. Management projected fiscal 2031 revenue of $70 billion to $90 billion, with a midpoint of $80 billion that dwarfs the $46.85 billion estimate from four analysts polled by Visible Alpha (SPGI). The gap highlights how far management’s vision exceeds current Wall Street models.

A key driver is custom silicon: Marvell now expects $12 billion in custom-chip revenue in fiscal 2029, up from a prior $10 billion target. These chips help major tech firms build their own AI processors and reduce reliance on Nvidia (NVDA). An August agreement with Google (GOOGL) could generate up to $120 billion in sales through fiscal 2033, contingent on performance milestones—a potential multiyear opportunity rather than guaranteed revenue.

Investors reacted positively to the October 6 investor day. Reuters (TRI) reported Marvell shares rose about 6% that day, while rival Broadcom (AVGO) gained about 4%. Marvell’s stock had already more than tripled year-to-date, suggesting considerable growth expectations were already embedded in its valuation.

Execution Risks and Supply Constraints

While the demand outlook is robust, Marvell faces real execution risks. The company warns that limited availability of advanced wafers, substrates, and outsourced testing could constrain deliveries or raise costs. Energy infrastructure is another bottleneck; the International Energy Agency has flagged AI electricity demand, energy security, and affordability as interconnected challenges.

Trade restrictions on Chinese customers, tariffs, and reliance on manufacturing partners also pose material risks, Marvell said. Changes in export permissions or supply chains could affect which customers it serves and whether it can fulfill projected demand.

Marvell’s recent acquisitions of Celestial AI and XConn, closed in fiscal Q4 2026, strengthened its position in AI “scale-up” networking—connections that allow processors to work together within larger computing systems. The October targets are an acceleration of a strategy outlined in 2021, not a sudden pivot.

The immediate test will be delivery against the $3.15 billion fiscal Q3 revenue midpoint and expected acceleration in custom-chip sales in the second half of fiscal 2027. Management described AI bookings as “exceptionally robust,” but bookings must convert into shipments and cash flow.

A Marvell spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment on the CNBC interview by press time.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the fiscal year for Marvell’s $20 billion revenue target. It is fiscal 2028, not calendar 2028.