• Canaccord lowered its price target on MicroStrategy (MSTR) to $130 from $163, citing a more cautious view on Bitcoin-driven upside.
  • The firm maintained a Buy rating, signaling continued belief in the company's Bitcoin treasury strategy.
  • The revision reflects tighter Bitcoin price assumptions and potential profitability pressures.

A More Measured Outlook

Canaccord Genuity analysts trimmed their price target for MicroStrategy (MSTR) to $130 from $163, while keeping a Buy rating, according to a client note. The adjustment comes as the firm recalibrates its valuation model amid recent Bitcoin price volatility and heightened market uncertainty around crypto assets. The new target implies a roughly 20% upside from current levels, suggesting analysts still see value in the software company's massive Bitcoin treasury.

“While near-term sentiment is fragile, MicroStrategy’s core Bitcoin holdings provide a unique asymmetric upside,” a person familiar with the matter said. The note emphasizes that the stock's NAV-like exposure to Bitcoin remains the primary valuation driver, but that a more conservative Bitcoin price outlook justifies the lower target.

Bitcoin’s Grip on Valuation

MicroStrategy, known for holding over 200,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, has seen its stock price closely track the cryptocurrency’s swings. In the latest quarter, the company reported a significant impairment charge on its digital assets, weighing on earnings. Canaccord’s revised estimates incorporate a lower average Bitcoin price assumption for 2025, which reduces the projected book value per share.

Analysts also noted that while the software business remains profitable, it contributes a smaller portion of overall enterprise value compared to the Bitcoin holdings. “The stock is essentially a leveraged play on Bitcoin,” one analyst commented, “and the target cut reflects a tempered view on near-term crypto momentum.”

Looking Ahead

Despite the reduced target, Canaccord remains positive on the long-term thesis. The firm highlighted MicroStrategy’s disciplined approach to treasury management and potential catalysts such as new accounting rules that could better reflect the value of digital assets. Management has signaled no plans to reduce its Bitcoin position.

“Without a significant rally in Bitcoin, the stock may trade sideways, but we see value in the current setup,” the note concluded. Efforts to reach MicroStrategy for comment were not immediately successful.

An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated the previous target as $163; it has since been corrected to reflect that the target was lowered from $163.