• House Speaker Mike Johnson will not seek to remain the top House Republican after the party’s midterm losses, CNN (NYSE:SKYD) reported, setting up a likely succession battle between Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan.
  • The decision, if confirmed, reverses Johnson’s October pledge to stay on, and comes as Democrats are projected to win control of both chambers.
  • Republican leadership candidates face a November 6 declaration deadline, with internal elections set for November 10; Majority Whip Tom Emmer is expected to seek the No. 2 spot.

A Surprise Withdrawal

House Speaker Mike Johnson has decided not to seek the top Republican leadership post in the next Congress, according to a CNN report early Wednesday, following the GOP’s sweeping midterm defeats. The move, if confirmed, would end his tenure as party leader and ignite a contest between House Majority Leader Steve Scalise and Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, two longtime aspirants with distinct bases of support.

CNN reported that Johnson was holding an all-staff call Wednesday morning after Democrats were projected to win both the House and Senate. The network’s sources said that if Johnson steps aside, attention would immediately shift to Scalise and Jordan, though other candidates could still emerge. Neither Scalise nor Jordan had publicly declared a campaign as of early Wednesday.

Johnson’s decision would mark a sharp reversal from his stated intention last month. In an October 12 interview with CBS (NYSE:SKYD), he said that even if Republicans lost their majority, he expected colleagues to ask him to continue leading the conference. “My intention is to stay and serve,” he said at the time. Yet behind the scenes, preparations for a succession contest were already underway: CNN reported in October that Jordan was quietly laying groundwork, while Politico’s interviews with three dozen Republican lawmakers and senior aides found widespread skepticism that Johnson would actually seek the minority leadership after a defeat.

A spokesperson for Johnson did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

No Clear Favorite

The emerging race pits Scalise, the No. 2 House Republican with deep leadership experience, against Jordan, a conservative firebrand backed by the party’s right flank. Majority Whip Tom Emmer is expected to seek the No. 2 Republican position, according to a person familiar with the matter. Candidates have until November 6 to declare, with internal elections scheduled for November 10, Politico reported.

The leadership scramble comes as Republicans grapple with the scale of their electoral losses. On election night, Johnson said he was “disappointed” but promised Republicans would retake the House in 2028. He said he would discuss the results more fully in the coming days. Trump, meanwhile, said he would accept the results but did not regard the losses as a personal rebuke.

Beyond the Leadership Fight

The larger economic and policy implications stem from the shift to divided government rather than Johnson’s personal decision. Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana said Democratic control of Congress would constrain Trump’s agenda on taxes, fiscal stimulus and spending, though Democrats would face limits because Trump retains presidential veto power. Early market reaction was positive: S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up about 1% and Dow futures about 1.4% shortly before 5:30 a.m. ET, after initially declining, according to CNN. Treasury yields and the dollar moved lower.

For businesses and households, the key questions are how divided government affects future spending and tax negotiations, and whether bargaining produces compromise or prolonged stalemate. The leadership headline itself announces no economic policy change. But the change in congressional control matters to stakeholders beyond party leadership: the administration and federal agencies face stronger Democratic scrutiny, and companies could face new congressional document requests and investigations. CNN reported that potential Democratic investigative priorities include affordability, artificial intelligence, immigration enforcement, federal workforce cuts and the Iran war.

Johnson’s decision also carries historical resonance. Nancy Pelosi remained Democratic leader after losing the House majority in 2010, while other recent speakers left congressional leadership—and subsequently Congress—after losing or relinquishing the gavel. Johnson won reelection to his Louisiana House seat, so not running for party leader is distinct from resigning from Congress; the headline alone does not establish that he will leave his seat.

What to Watch

In the short term, watch for Johnson’s full statement, formal candidate declarations by November 6 and the November 10 leadership vote. Scalise and Jordan are the leading prospective contenders, but CNN explicitly leaves room for additional candidates. Over the longer term, the size and ideological composition of the post-election Republican conference will help determine both the leadership winner and the party’s strategy for 2028. Meanwhile, Democratic control of both chambers would expand oversight of the Trump administration, though it does not remove the president’s veto power.

Forecasts remain contested. Johnson promised a House comeback in 2028; Florida Governor Ron DeSantis argued that the scale of the losses could keep Congress out of Republican hands for substantially longer. Those are competing political predictions, not established outcomes.

Correction: An earlier version of this article misstated the timing of Johnson’s all-staff call. It was held Wednesday morning, not Tuesday.