• Morgan Stanley lifts NVIDIA's price target to $200 from $170, maintaining an Overweight rating.
  • Analyst Joseph Moore highlights Blackwell AI chip demand outpacing supply, with constraints expected to ease in H2 2025.
  • NVIDIA remains Morgan Stanley's top semiconductor pick amid explosive AI-driven growth.

Surging Demand for Blackwell Chips

Morgan Stanley has raised its price target for NVIDIA (NVDA) to $200, up from $170, citing "exceptionally strong" demand for the company's Blackwell AI chips. Analyst Joseph Moore, who kept an Overweight rating on the stock, noted that demand continues to exceed supply, though improvements are expected later this year.

"Blackwell remains supply-constrained, but we see meaningful easing in the second half," Moore said in the note. The firm expects this to drive further earnings growth, reinforcing NVIDIA's position as its top semiconductor pick.

Supply Constraints and Market Position

NVIDIA's Blackwell chips, critical for AI data centers and high-performance computing, have faced persistent bottlenecks. However, the company’s ability to navigate these challenges has only solidified its market leadership. For Q1 FY26, NVIDIA reported revenue of $44.1 billion—a 69% year-over-year surge—with gross margins holding strong at 72% (non-GAAP).

While competitors like AMD and Intel scramble to catch up in AI hardware, NVIDIA’s technological edge and first-mover advantage keep it ahead. "The Blackwell rollout has been a textbook execution," said one industry insider familiar with the matter. "Even with constraints, they’re converting demand into record numbers."

Geopolitical and Competitive Landscape

Export controls on advanced chip sales to China remain a headwind, but so far, they haven’t derailed NVIDIA’s momentum. Instead, global AI infrastructure investments—from cloud providers to governments—are fueling unprecedented demand.

Morgan Stanley’s bullish update reflects broader optimism that NVIDIA’s supply chain will stabilize, allowing it to capitalize fully on the AI boom. Shares rose modestly in pre-market trading following the note.

NVIDIA declined to comment on the price target adjustment, but CEO Jensen Huang has previously emphasized the company’s focus on "scaling to meet the needs of the AI era."

Correction: An earlier version misstated the non-GAAP gross margin figure. It has been updated to 72%.